Good morning!
Corn and beans lower, wheat varied overnight... Corn and soybean futures faced pressure from favorable weather, while winter wheat markets firmed and spring wheat traded lower overnight. As of 6:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 3 to 5 cents lower, soybeans are 6 to 8 cents lower, SRW wheat is 2 to 5 cents higher, HRW wheat is 1 to 3 cents higher and HRS wheat is 4 to 7 cents lower. The U.S. dollar index is around 350 points lower, falling to its lowest level since February 2022, while front-month crude oil futures are around 50 cents higher.
Corn and spring wheat CCI ratings improve, soybean crop slips... USDA rated the corn crop as 73% “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor,” the soybean crop 66% “good” to “excellent” and 7% “poor” to “very poor” and the spring wheat crop 53% “good” to “excellent” and 14% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop improved 3.5 points to 381.4, which is 9.1 points above last year. The soybean crop slipped 0.9 point to 361.8 and is 1.1 points below year-ago. The spring wheat crop improved 1.1 points to 355.4, though that’s still 26.9 points below last year despite a much better rating in top producer North Dakota. Click here for details.
Crop Progress Report highlights… Following are highlights from USDA’s crop progress and condition update as of June 29:
- Corn: 73% good/excellent (70% last week); 8% silking (6% average).
- Soybeans: 66% good/excellent (66% last week); 94% emerged (95% average); 17% blooming (16% average); 3% setting pods (2% average).
- Spring wheat: 53% good/excellent (54% last week); 96% emerged (100% average); 38% headed (37% average).
- Winter wheat: 49% good/excellent (49% last week); 37% harvested (42% average).
- Cotton: 51% good/excellent (47% last week); 95% planted (98% average); 40% squaring (37% average); 9% setting bolls (9% average).
Japan won’t sacrifice ag sector for tariff deal... Tokyo will not sacrifice the agricultural sector as part of its tariff talks with the U.S., top trade negotiator and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa reaffirmed, after President Donald Trump complained Japan was not buying American rice. “In negotiations with the United States, our stance remains unchanged: We will not engage in talks that would sacrifice the agricultural sector,” he said, adding that he would continue to negotiate with his U.S. counterparts to protect Japan’s national interests. Akazawa, who is in his seventh trip to Washington for trade talks, declined to say whether rice was part of those discussions.
Rise in soy crush, corn-for-ethanol use expected for May... USDA is expected to report soy crush totaled 204.9 million bu. in May, based on a Bloomberg survey. That would be up 2.5 million bu. (1.2%) from April and 13.3 million bu. (6.9%) from year-ago. Corn-for-ethanol use is expected to come in at 447.4 million bu., up 21.6 million bu. (5.1%) from April but down 12.6 million bu. (2.7%) from last year.
Ukraine’s grain exports plunge more than 20% in 2024-25... Ukraine exported 40.6 MMT of grain in 2024-25, down 10.5 MMT (20.5%) from the previous year. Grain exports included 21.96 MMT of corn (down 25.6%), 15.72 MMT of wheat (down 15.0%) and 2.32 MMT of barley (down 8.3%).
Senate GOP faces turmoil as Trump’s domestic agenda falters in marathon vote-a-rama... President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda has entered a period of high-stakes uncertainty as Senate Republicans endured a grueling, nearly 20-hour “vote-a-rama” with no clear resolution in sight. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is locked in a fierce scramble for votes to pass the centerpiece “One Big Beautiful Bill,” as internal divisions and key defections threaten its fate. Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) remain opposed, while Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) are still holdouts. With only three GOP defections allowed, Thune’s margin is razor-thin. Adding to the complexity, the Senate overwhelmingly passed a bipartisan amendment by Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) to remove a 10-year moratorium on state-level regulation of AI — a blow to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and his allies who favored the original restriction. Even if Thune can secure Senate passage, the bill faces an even rockier path in the House. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is dealing with deep frustration among conservatives who argue the bill’s $1.5 trillion in spending cuts fall short of the $2 trillion promised. Medicaid cuts near $1 trillion have also alarmed GOP moderates. The House Rules Committee will begin preparing the bill for floor consideration at noon ET, with a full House vote expected Wednesday, but as of now, both chambers are mired in division and uncertainty about the path forward for Trump’s signature legislative package.
USDA set to launch disaster aid signup July 7, with additional relief rules coming this fall... USDA is on track to open signups for its Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) on July 7, after the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) completed its review of the program’s final rule. SDRP will provide aid to producers who suffered revenue, quality or production losses from weather-related events in 2023 and 2024. For certain “shallow losses” — especially for producers with quality losses who lack crop insurance — USDA says more time is needed to collect data. The agency plans to submit a separate final rule on these uncovered losses to OMB by Aug. 19, aiming for its approval by Sept. 9 and a signup launch on Sept. 15.
Private sector survey shows China’s manufacturing sector expanded in June... China’s Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 50.4 in June from 48.3 in May, supported by an increase in new orders that lifted production. The reading contrasts with China’s official PMI on Monday that showed factory activity contracted for a third straight month.
USDA announces phased reopening of Mexican cattle imports... USDA will reopen ports of entry from Mexico for cattle, bison and equine imports in phases as early as July 7, beginning with Douglas, Arizona, which it said is the lowest risk entry point due to its location and the “long history of effective collaboration” between officials in Sonora and USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. The southern U.S. border was closed to imports of the animals on May 11 for a second time this year due to Mexico’s New World screwworm situation, as the damaging pest was moving northward within the country. The port at Columbus, New Mexico, may reopen on July 14, followed by Santa Teresa, New Mexico, on July 21, Del Rio, Texas, on Aug. 18 and Laredo, Texas, on Sept. 15, USDA said. USDA will evaluate conditions after each reopening to ensure enhanced control measures are working. Mexico’s Ag Minister Julio Berdegue requested some of the deadlines for reopening be accelerated and Mexico said it will ban the movement of livestock without proof of inspection and treatment for screwworm from affected areas to central and northern Mexico starting July 7.
Beef margins dramatically shift to deeply black... A $9.40 decline in cash cattle prices the past two weeks and strong wholesale beef prices have flipped beef packer margins from deep in the red to highly positive. Despite the dramatic reversal, cash cattle prices are still expected to trade lower again this week, adding to the pullback from the recent record highs.
Cash hog index halts string of gains... The CME lean hog index is down 26 cents to $111.76 as of June 27, the first daily decline since May 9. July lean hog futures finished below today’s index quote on Monday, suggesting traders sense the seasonal runup has run its course.
Overnight demand news... Exporters reported no tenders or sales.
Today’s reports
- 2:00 p.m. Cotton System Consumption and Stocks — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Fats and Oils: Oilseed Crushings — NASS
- 2:00 p.m. Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production — NASS