December crop reports should be rather uneventful

With no updates to the corn and soybean crop estimates this month, focus will be on changes to demand projections for 2021-22.

usda
usda
(USDA)

USDA won’t update its corn and soybean crop estimates this month, only cotton, in Thursday’s Crop Production Report. That will put most of the focus on the Supply & Demand Report, specifically the demand projections for the 2021-22 marketing year. The following report expectations are based on Reuters surveys (Bloomberg for cotton).

Expectations for 2021
U.S. Production

Cotton

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Harvested acres (mil.)

Average est.

18.19

NA

NA

Range

18.00-18.45

NA

NA

USDA Nov. est.

18.20

880

9.922

Expectations for
U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

2021-22

Average est.

1.487

Range

1.420-1.576

USDA November

1.493

Soybeans – million bushels

2021-22

Average est.

352

Range

325-411

USDA November

340

Wheat – million bushels

2021-22

Average est.

589

Range

573-632

USDA November

583

Cotton – million bales

2021-22

Average est.

3.51

Range

3.20-3.70

USDA November

3.40

Not much change expected to the global forecasts either... As with the domestic data, USDA is expected to just fine tune its global ending stocks forecasts this month.

Expectations for
Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

2021-22

Average est.

304.47

Range

302.21-306.20

USDA November

304.42

Soybeans – MMT

2021-22

Average est.

104.13

Range

103.00-105.20

USDA November

103.78

Wheat – MMT

2021-22

Average est.

276.30

Range

273.50-279.00

USDA November

275.80

Cotton – million bales

2021-22

Average est.

86.74

Range

86.00-87.30

USDA November

86.93