Big balance sheet changes coming Oct. 12

The 2022-23 domestic balance sheets will reflect Sept. 1 stocks and the final 2022 wheat crop estimate, along with any changes to this year’s corn, soybean and cotton crop forecasts.

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usda
(USDA)

Updated corn, soybean and cotton crop estimates, big balance sheet changes coming Oct. 12... USDA will release its Crop Production and Supply & Demand Reports at 11 a.m. CT on Wednesday. The 2022-23 domestic balance sheets will reflect Sept. 1 stocks and the final 2022 wheat crop estimate, along with any changes to this year’s corn, soybean and cotton crop forecasts. That will produce some major adjustments to the supply and demand sides of the balance sheets. The following pre-report estimates are from Reuters; Bloomberg for cotton.

Expectations for 2022
U.S. Production

Corn

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Harvested acres (mil.)

Average est.

13.855

171.8

NA

Range

13.766 - 14.056

170.1 – 173.9

NA

USDA September

13.944

172.5

80.844

Soybeans

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Harvested acres (mil.)

Average est.

4.381

50.5

NA

Range

4.309 - 4.463

49.8 – 51.3

NA

USDA September

4.378

50.5

86.631

Cotton

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Harvested acres (mil.)

Average est.

13.34

NA

NA

Range

12.80 – 13.65

NA

NA

USDA September

13.832

843

7.876

Expectations for U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.*

1.377

1.124

Range

NA

1.015 – 1.300

USDA September

1.530

1.219

*Set by Sept. 1 stocks in Grain Stocks Report

Soybeans – million bushels

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.*

274

248

Range

NA

187 - 343

USDA September

240

200

*Set by Sept. 1 stocks in Grain Stocks Report

Wheat – million bushels

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

554

Range

NA

477 - 637

USDA September

660

610

Cotton – million bales

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

2.46

Range

NA

2.07 – 2.93

USDA September

3.75

2.70

Expectations for Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

301.44

Range

NA

280.30 – 311.00

USDA September

312.14

304.53

Soybeans – MMT

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

100.03

Range

NA

97.50 – 103.20

USDA September

89.70

98.92

Wheat – MMT

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

267.49

Range

NA

262.60 – 270.00

USDA September

275.67

268.57

Cotton – million bales

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

84.64

Range

NA

84.20 – 85.15

USDA September

84.79

84.75