GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 10 to 15 cents lower.
Soybeans: 18 to 22 cents lower.
Wheat: Winter wheat markets 8 to 12 cents lower; spring wheat 5 to 8 cents lower.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Grain and soy markets faced heavy selling overnight coming out of the holiday weekend amid favorable U.S. weather conditions and uncertainty on the trade front. The U.S. dollar index is around 200 points higher this morning, while front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher.
USDA reported daily corn sales of 135,000 MT to Mexico – 29,000 MT for 2024-25 and 106,000 MT for 2025-26.
A ridge of high pressure over western North America will support timely rain and seasonable temperatures in the Midwest during the next 10 days, resulting in “nearly ideal” conditions for crop development, according to World Weather Inc. Hot and dry conditions will be seen across the Pacific Northwest and southwestern corner of Canada’s crop region.
President Donald Trump has said he will not extend the 90-day pause to tariffs that “expires” on Wednesday and will start sending letters to countries specifying the tariff rates they will have to pay. But the increased tariffs will not be implemented until Aug. 1, leaving more time for some countries to negotiate. Without a deal, tariffs currently set at a 10% baseline will go back to the 20% to 49% set on April 2, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.
Trump said the U.S. will impose an additional 10% tariff on any countries aligning themselves with the “Anti-American policies” of the BRICS group of developing nations, whose leaders kicked off a summit in Brazil on Sunday.
Russia’s government cut its wheat export tax to zero, effective July 9, Interfax news agency reported on Friday, citing the Russian agriculture ministry. This is the first time the tax has been removed since it was introduced in 2021.
CORN: December corn futures gapped lower overnight, giving bears the decided upper hand coming out of the holiday weekend. Near-term support is at last week’s contract low at $4.16 1/2. Below that, bears would likely target the psychological $4.00 level. The overnight gap from $4.29 3/4 to $4.32 3/4 stands as near-term resistance.
SOYBEANS: November soybean futures gapped lower overnight but remains with the extended sideways trading range. Near-term support is layered in the $10.25 to $10.13 1/4 range. The overnight gap from $10.39 1/2 to $10.44 1/4 stands as initial resistance.
WHEAT: September SRW futures moved into the lower end of the choppy range from the May low to the June high during overnight trade. Near-term support is at last week’s low of $5.34 3/4. The overnight gap from $5.53 3/4 to $5.56 1/4 stands as near-term resistance.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower
HOGS: Lower
CATTLE: Live cattle and feeders are expected to open with a mostly lower tone on pressure from weakening cash fundamentals, though big discounts to the cash market may limit seller interest. Cash cattle traded lower for a third straight week, though last week’s average cash price won’t be published by USDA until later this morning. Cash sources expect the recent pullback in cash prices to continue this week. Wholesale beef prices fell $5.11 to $389.75 for Choice and $1.87 to $378.44 for Select last Friday.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open lower after a low-range close last week and weakening cash fundamentals. Seasonal tops appear to be in place for cash fundamentals and futures are also showing topping signs. The latest quote for the CME lean hog index is down another 71 cents to $109.51 as of July 2, the fourth straight daily decline. Pork cutout declined another 54 cents to $110.21 last Thursday, extending its pullback from recent highs.