For the ninth time in 2025, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral 50.0, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for November increased to a weak 44.0 from October’s 34.6, its lowest level since May 2020. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.
Some 31.8% of bankers report their local economy is in a recession. More than one in three say they see solid growth for their area with no recession in sight for 2026. The remaining 30.9% report current conditions were “ok,” but they expect a recession in 2026.
“Weak agriculture commodity prices and high input costs for grain producers continue to dampen economic activity in the 10-state region. On average, bank CEOs expect 18.3% of farmers and ranchers in their area to record negative cash flow for 2025,” says Creighton University’s Ernie Goss who conducts the survey.
However, livestock farmers and ranchers remain in better financial conditions. As stated by Joseph Anglin, Chief Financial Officer for Pioneer Bank and Trust in Belle Fourche, S.D., “We are primarily in western S.D. with cattle ranchers that are “raisers of beef,” so we do not see the negative cash flow of row crop farming cash flow issues.”
According to Jeff Bonnett, President of Havana National Bank in Havana, Ill., “In talking with our small business owners on Main Street in the communities we serve, the stories are all the same — customers are struggling with tight cashflows, so their business suffers. This is a reality throughout rural America here in the Midwest. We are in an Ag Crisis and relief is needed. No business can survive operating at below breakeven for two-to-three consecutive years. Capital and cash reserves are almost depleted for many farm operators.”
Farming and ranchland prices: For the 18th time in the past 19 months, farmland prices are below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price improved to a frail 43.2 from 37.0 in October. “Elevated long-term interest rates, higher input costs and below breakeven grain prices put downward pressure on farmland prices,” observes Goss.
Some 58.3% of bankers expect farmland prices to fall in 2026, with an average decline of 3.1%.
Jim Eckert, Executive VP and Trust Officer of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill., says, “The corn crop in our area was similar to 2024. Soybeans were somewhat less than in 2024. Low crop prices are hurting all of our producers, especially those with heavy debt loads.”
Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index sank to a very weak 15.1 from 18.8 in October. “This is the 27th straight month the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input costs, tighter credit conditions, low farm commodity prices and market volatility from tariffs are having negative impacts on purchases of farm equipment,” notes Goss.
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area for the next six months. The November confidence index sank to 32.0 from 32.7 in October. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, pushed banker confidence lower,” said Goss.
Creighton University says the survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally -- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The RMI covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300.