Land will be worth $100,000 per acre in 2050 in Marshall County, Ill. At least, that’s what the forecasted ROI based on the past 25 years would indicate.
I recently partnered with Harrison Rogers of Fractal Ag to build a simple tool around land purchase decision-making. I said, “Harrison, we need to be able to plug in the price in 2000, the price now in 2025 and have the calculation extrapolate that forward to a projected price in 2050.”
Harrison is much smarter, and better looking, than me, and he made that happen.
I have built land investment tools in the past that accounted for taxes, capital rates of return and appreciation, but I was missing historical context.
How I Got That Number
Using the example below, if land was $2,500 per acre in 2000 and is now $16,500 that’s a 7.84% compounded annual rate. By 2050, that’s more than $108,000 per acre. Even at conservative 45-year trends from university data of 6.75%, $80,000+ isn’t unrealistic.
Is this our new reality? I don’t know. Scarce assets with high demand drive prices up. Will it be at the continued parabolic rate, or will it flatten out? These opportunities for buying come in cycles, and we might be in a buying opportunity right now.
I’m fortunate to speak to many wealthy and successful farm business owners who consistently relate “buying land almost never cash flows or makes sense at the time.” It worked for them, and their balance sheets showed it. Now, $16,500 per acre on 160 acres becomes $14 million in balance sheet gain over the next 25 years if these calculations are true. So, is buying land sustainable today? Or is the better question: Is buying land sustainable in five, 10 or 25 years from now?
Interested in farmland investments? Make plans to attend Top Producer Summit, Feb. 9-11, 2026, to learn how to assess each investment opportunity and look beyond your common understanding of how, when and why to buy land. Land is measured in acres but it’s effect on your balance sheet, bottom line and control over your business is greater than just that.
