Market Snapshot | Weather concerns drive short-covering gains

July 18, 2025

Pro Farmer's Market Snapshot
Market Snapshot | July 18, 2025
(Pro Farmer)

Corn is 6 cents higher.

  • Corn futures are edging higher an amid extended short-covering.
  • Changes are coming to the weather pattern that will produce hotter temps and high relative humidity across areas of the U.S. through next week, inducing some crop stress. World Weather Inc. says hot temperatures are likely in the Central and Southern Plains, Delta, lower Midwest and interior southeastern states from this weekend through the end of next week, with heat indices of 95 to 115 likely.
  • Indonesia and the U.S. are still negotiating the specifics of a bilateral trade agreement, despite both sides confirming a deal has been reached in principle.
  • September corn futures

Soybeans are mostly 7 to 9 cents higher, while meal futures are around $3.00 higher. Soyoil has turned fractionally lower.

  • Soybeans are firmer but have backed off from earlier highs in tandem with soyoil.
  • China wants to bring its trade ties with the U.S. back to a stable footing, its commerce minister said. China is facing an Aug. 12 deadline to reach a durable tariff agreement with the U.S. after Beijing and Washington reached a preliminary deal last month to end escalating tit-for-tat tariffs.
  • Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said he would not take orders over tariffs from a foreigner and later called President Donald Trump’s threatened duties “unacceptable blackmail.” Trump attributed the tariffs, set to start Aug. 1 to Brazil’s treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro and to trade practices against U.S. companies that he said are unfair.
  • August soybean futures have edged above the 20-day moving average and are now facing resistance at the 100-day moving average of $10.37 1/4, which is backed by the 20- and 200-day moving average, each trading at $10.40 1/2.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 12 to 15 cents higher, while HRS futures are around 2 cents higher.

  • SRW wheat future are posting solid short-covering gains with support from a weaker U.S. dollar.
  • China achieved a bumper summer grain harvest this year despite severe drought in some regions. Total grain output is expected to reach 149.74 MMT, which would be the second highest on record behind last year, according to the ag ministry. Acreage for fall-harvested crops is expected to rise slightly and they are generally in good condition.
  • Wet weather is continuing across many Russia spring wheat areas while parts of Europe continue to limp along with some dryness issues in the west and southeast, hurting production of some spring cereals in a few areas, according to World Weather Inc.
  • December SRW futures are up against resistance at the 20-day moving average of $5.70 1/4, while support lies at this week’s low of $5.52 3/4.

Live cattle and feeders are lower at midsession.

  • Nearby live cattle have forged a fresh all-time high but have turned modestly lower.
  • Cash cattle lightly traded in both the Southern Plains and northern market at higher prices on Thursday, though many packers were reluctant to actively bid for cattle given negative margins.
  • Wholesale beef prices were mixed with Choice up 43 cents to $373.28 and Select down $4.07 to $353.84. Beef movement was 139 loads on Thursday and has averaged 135 loads the past five days.
  • August live cattle have scored a new all-time high of $224.55, while resistance stands at $224.60. Initial support remains at $222.40.

Hog futures are firmer at midmorning.

  • Nearby lean hogs are firmer amid decided strength in the cash index.
  • The CME lean hog index is up 43 cents to $107.63 as of July 16, marking the first back-to-back rise and the biggest daily gain since late June.
  • Pork cutout firmed $1.58 to $116.32 on Thursday, the highest level in three weeks.
  • China imported 90,000 MT of pork during June, unchanged from the previous month and year-ago. Through the first half of 2025, China imported 540,000 MT of pork, up 4.9% from the same period last year.
  • August lean hogs gapped higher at the open but are being limited by resistance at the 40- and 20-day moving averages, currently trading at $107.38 and $107.61. Initial support lies at the intraday low of $106.05.