Corn futures are chopping around unchanged at midmorning.
- Corn futures are modestly weaker in corrective trade, as technical resistance continues to curb near-term buyer interest.
- USDA rated the crop 67% good to excellent as of Sunday, down one-percentage point from the previous week. On the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale with 500 being perfect), the crop declined 0.99 point.
- Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonner lowered his U.S. corn yield estimate by 1.0 bu. to 181.0 bu. per acre and holds a neutral to lower bias going forward. He noted near record temps last week across most of the northern Corn Belt and limited rainfall, along with high daytime and nighttime temps are probably trimming potential yields.
- World Weather Inc. reports expanding crop stress is likely in the northern Plains and northwestern Corn Belt over the next ten days resulting in some concern over potential yields because reproduction for corn has begun. Most other areas in the Midwest have sufficient soil moisture to carry crops for a while.
- U.S. and Mexican trade negotiators will meet for bilateral talks on Tuesday to try to push forward with revising the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, according to Reuters. The talks are set to run for three days and are the first formal discussions on changes since the Trump administration declined to extend the six-year regional trade pact on July 1.
- The Trump administration vows to impose a fresh 50% tariff on some Canadian goods. The move comes as the U.S. claims unfair Canadian treatment of American alcohol, cars and dairy products. “The items subject to the new tariff include milk, hockey equipment, beer and plywood — but not major resource imports such as energy, potash and critical minerals.
- September corn futures continue to face resistance at the 200- and 100-day moving averages, trading at $4.52 3/4 and $4.56 1/2, while support lies at $4.44 1/4, which is backed by the 10-day moving average.
Soybeans are 6 to 9 cents lower, while meal is around 70 cents higher. Soyoil is 60 points lower.
- Soybeans are correctively weaker in inside trade in the wake of Monday’s strong gains.
- USDA rated the soybean crop as 66% good to excellent as of Sunday, up one percentage point from the previous week. On our CCI, the crop rating improved 2.11 points on the week. The largest increases were in Iowa and Illinois.
- Dr. Cordonnier lowered his U.S. soybean production estimate by 0.5 bu. to 52.0 bu. per acre and holds a neutral to lower bias going forward. He notes, “The area of greatest concern is lingering dryness in eastern Nebraska, northwestern Iowa, southwestern Minnesota, eastern South Dakota and part of southern North Dakota.”
- The Panama Canal Authority will temporarily suspend part of the booking system for ships due to water-supply challenges and the potential development of an El Niño weather pattern. “Daily auctions for the canal’s Panamax-class locks will be halted from July 25, cutting daily booking capacity from 36 to 34 vessels. The suspension is expected to mean fewer opportunities to get slots and more competition for openings, potentially causing ‘greater challenges’ for ships without confirmed bookings,” said a Bloomberg report.
- August soybeans are trading within Monday’s range, limited by this week’s high of $12.31 3/4, while support lies at Monday’s low of $12.09, which is backed by the 10-day moving average, which coincides with psychological support at $12.00.
Winter wheat futures are a penny to 6 cents lower. HRS futures are modestly firmer.
- SRW wheat futures are posting followthrough weakness, with continued pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar.
- USDA rated the spring wheat crop as 53% good to excellent, down 5 percentage points from the previous week. Our CCI rating declined 7.86 points.
- Sovecon cuts its forecast for the Russian wheat crop this year to 88.3 MMT, down from 88.9 MMT, citing weaker prospects in the south of the country and a smaller spring wheat area.
- September SRW futures are facing initial support at $6.67, while resistance is layered at $6.79 1/2, $6.86 1/2 and at last week’s high of $6.98 1/4.
Live cattle and feeders are lower at midsession.
- Cattle futures are pausing after posting corrective gains on Monday.
- The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is reporting 41 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. and all still in Texas and New Mexico. There are 12 active cases, all still in Texas.
- Cash cattle trade averaged $238.28 last week, down nearly $10 from the previous week’s average of $248.01.
- Boxed beef rebounded on Monday, with Choice up $3.29 to $370.10 and Select up 16 cents to $355.45. Movement was light, however, at only 77 loads.
- August live cattle are facing initial resistance at $227.69, while support lies at $224.52 and this week’s low of $223.675.
Hog futures are firmer at midday.
- Lean hogs are firmer but are being limited by technical resistance.
- The CME lean hog index is up 51 cents to $96.16 as of July 17.
- The pork cutout value fell $1.31 to $103.10 on Monday, led by declines in primal bellies and hams. Movement totaled 238.5 loads.
- August lean hogs continue to be limited by resistance at $101.95, which is backed by the 200- and 100-day moving averages, layered at $102.63 and $103.25. Support lies at $100.85, which is backed by the 10- and 20-day moving averages.