Market Snapshot | Trade uncertainties leave ag complex uninspired

Old-crop corn futures are mostly 2 cents higher, while new-crop contracts are around a penny lower.

• Modest bull spreading has returned to the corn market, with old-crop higher on corrective buying.
• USDA reported corn plantings advanced to 40% complete as of May 4, up 16 points on the week and one point ahead of the five-year average.
• Heavy rainfall in April provided Brazil’s safrinha corn crop with ample soil moisture as the crop moves through pollination and grain fill. As a result, South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn crop forecast 1 MMT to 126 MMT, while maintaining a higher bias. Cordonnier left his Argentine corn crop estimate unchanged at 49 MMT.
• Brazilian corn ethanol industry group UNEM expects production of the fuel will reach 9.9 billion liters in 2025-26 crop, up 20% from 8.24 billion liters in 2024-25. Production in 2024-25 will be up 30.9% from the previous year. As more corn goes to ethanol production, Brazil will have less supplies to export.
• July corn futures are trading within Monday’s broad range, with support at the previous session low of $4.53 1/4, which is backed by the March 28 low of $4.50 1/2.

Soybeans are 2 to 4 cents lower. Soymeal futures are less than $1.00 lower while soyoil is mostly 40 to 50 points lower.

• Soybeans are lower amid selling across the soy complex.
• USDA reported soybeans were 30% planted as of May 4, up 12 points on the week and seven points ahead of the five-year average.
• Cordonnier maintained his Brazilian and Argentine soybean production estimates of 169 MMT and 50 MMT, respectively.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an interview with CNBC, expressed optimism that “substantial progress” in U.S./China trade negotiations could be achieved in the coming weeks. However, the overall status of talks remains uncertain, with public statements from both sides highlighting a lack of formal engagement and continued strategic posturing.
• July soybeans have found support at Monday’s low of $10.37 3/4, which is backed by the 40-day moving average of $10.34 3/4. Resistance is layered at the 100-, 20-, 200- and 10-day moving averages from $10.42 1/4 to $10.51 3/4.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 4 to 6 cents higher, while HRS futures are a penny higher.

• SRW wheat futures notching light short-covering gains, underpinned by U.S. dollar weakness.
• USDA rated the winter wheat crop 51% “good” to “excellent” and 18% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop improved 2 points to 327.0, despite a 1.3-point decline in top producer Kansas. The SRW crop improved 2.1 points to 369.3, driven by a 1.9-point increase in top producer Illinois. The HRW crop is rated 9.5 points above year-ago, while the SRW crop is 23.4 points below last year at this time. Click here for full details.
• USDA reported spring wheat plantings were 44% complete as of May 4, 10 points ahead of the five-year average.
• China’s Henan province, which produces about one-third of the country’s wheat, issued a risk warning for the wheat crop. From May 11-13, temperatures are expected to exceed 35 degrees Celsius (95°F), heightening the risk of dry, hot wind damage, especially in areas like Anyang, Puyang and Zhengzhou, which could disrupt wheat development.
• Russia’s IKAR agriculture consultancy raised its 2025 wheat production forecast by 1.5 MMT to 83.8 MMT. Its 2025-26 Russian wheat export forecast was raised 1.3 MMT to 40 MMT.
• July SRW futures are challenging the 10-day moving average, currently trading at $5.36 1/2, while support lies at $5.25 ¼ and then at last week’s low of $5.23 1/4.

Live cattle are mildly firmer, while feeders are weaker at midmorning.

• June live cattle have scored another contract amid fundamental and technical support.
• Cash cattle averaged a record $220.97 last week, up $4.65 from the previous week. Cash prices have surged $13.27 the past three weeks, with the last two setting records. Many cash sources expect prices to be higher again this week, though some believe the market will retreat after packers purchased the most cattle of the year last week and they have May contracted supplies available.
• Wholesale beef values rose on Monday, with Choice up 67 cents to $343.57, while Select firmed $2.72 to $328.07. Movement was light, however, at only 81 loads.
• June live cattle have notched a fresh contract high at $214.30, with resistance at the recent all-time high of $217.675 on the continuation chart. Initial support lies at $212.92, then at $211.73.

Hog futures are moderately to sharply weaker at midsession.

• Nearby lean hogs are notably weaker as traders narrow premiums to the cash index and amid technical selling.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 18 cents to $89.87 as of May 2, the 13th consecutive daily gain.
• The pork cutout value slid $1.72 to $96.66 amid declines in all cuts aside from primal ribs. Movement totaled 343.7 loads.
• June lean hogs are finding support at the 20-, 200- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $97.31 to $96.72. Resistance starts at today’s high of $98.475, with backing from the 10-day moving average of $99.28.