Corn is choppy with a modest upside bias at midmorning.
- Corn futures bounced from earlier contract lows, though buyer interest is limited by favorable weather and trade uncertainties.
- Weather conditions are expected to remain favorable, if not ideal, for most corn production areas over the next 10 days to two weeks. Seasonal temperatures and periodic rains are likely across the Corn Belt, Delta and Southeast during that period.
- Ethanol production averaged 1.085 million barrels per day (bpd) last week, up from 1.076 million bpd the previous week and 1.054 million bpd the same week last year. Stocks slid to 24.0 million barrels, down from 24.1 million the previous week but up from 23.6 million barrels for the same week last year.
- Overnight, South Korea passed on a tender to buy up to 69,000 MT of corn from the U.S., South America or South Africa. Iran tendered to buy 60,000 MT each of corn (sourced from Brazil, Europe or the Black Sea region).
- September corn futures edged to a new contract low of $3.96 1/4, which now serves as initial support, while initial resistance is at $4.02 1/4.
Soybeans are mostly 9 cents lower, while soymeal is around $1.00 lower and soyoil is about 70 points lower.
- Soybeans continue to weaken amid looming trade unknowns and technical-based selling.
- President Donald Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. would “pretty soon” charge a 10% tariff on imports from BRICS countries, reiterating a threat he made on Sunday, without providing a specific date. Trump said, “BRICS was set up to degenerate our dollar and take our dollar ... take it off as the standard.
- The main soybean production areas are expected to see favorable conditions for crop development, with seasonal temps and periodic rains.
- Argentina’s first 30,000 MT shipment of soymeal to China is seen as a test for potentially more exports. However, there are major headwinds before it could be turned into a meaningful trade. “If they’re buying from Argentina, it’s a good sign,” analyst Lorena D’Angelo based in farm hub city Rosario told Reuters. “However, it’s more political than market-related.”
- August soybean futures edged to a three-month low, with initial support at $10.12 ¼, while initial resistance is at $10.24 3/4.
Wheat futures are around a penny higher in most contracts.
- SRW wheat futures are modestly firmer though technical resistance and a general lack of buyer interest across the grain and soy complexes are curbing the upside.
- Ukraine’s combined grain and oilseed crop production is expected to reach 83.1 MMT this year, Ukrainian grain traders union UGA said. That would allow the country to export a combined 50 MMT of grains and oilseeds in 2025-26, up from 46.7 MMT in the just completed 2024-25 marketing year.
- December SRW futures continue to face resistance at $5.71 1/2, which is backed by the 40- and 20-day moving averages, while initial support lies at $5.64 1/2 and $5.60 1/4.
Live cattle and feeders are modestly higher midsession.
- Nearby live cattle have backed off the fresh contract high posted in early trade, though seller interest remains limited given big discounts to the cash market.
- The combination of surging cattle futures and strong packer margins are building hopes cash cattle prices may be steady at worst this week following three straight weeks of decline.
- Wholesale beef prices firmed $2.06 to $393.04 for Choice and 93 cents to $378.46 for Select on Tuesday.
- August live cattle futures have edged to a new contract of $220.80, which now serves as resistance, while initial support lies at $218.77.
Hog futures are firmer at midmorning.
- Nearby lean hogs are modestly firmer in consolidative trade as cash and wholesale fundamentals continue to show weakness.
- The CME lean hog index is down another $1.00 to $107.33 as of July 7.
- Pork cutout fell $1.48 to $112.01 on Tuesday as all cuts declined, led by a $5.27 drop in butts. Packer margins are solidly in the red, suggesting the pullback from seasonal highs in the cash and product markets will continue as slaughter supplies gradually start to build.
- August lean hogs continue to face resistance at $107.58, while initial support lies at $106.21 and is backed by this week’s low of $105.50.