Market Snapshot | September 23, 2022

Corn futures are 12 to 14 cents lower at midsession.

Corn futures are heading for a weekly loss as the dollar’s surge to fresh 20-year highs and escalating recession concerns pressure the market.
Slumping crude oil is also weighing on corn. Front-month crude oil is down around $5 and fell under $80 for the first time since early January.
Polling stations opened in four Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine, with residents given until Tuesday to vote on whether they want to officially join Russia. The Ukrainian government and Western leaders have declared the referendums are illegitimate and plan to ignore the results.
Ukraine has started its 2022 corn harvest, with an estimated 92,200 MT brought in from 0.5% of the sown area, the agriculture ministry said today. The ministry has said Ukraine could harvest 25 MMT to 27 MMT this year versus 42.1 MMT in 2021.
December corn dropped under the 20-day moving average at $6.78 and fell as low as $6.69 1/2, down from $6.77 1/4 at the end of last week. Last week’s low at $6.67 1/2 stands as initial support.

Soy complex futures are down sharply, led by declines of 24 to 26 cents in soybeans, $3 to $5 in soymeal and more than 200 points in soyoil.

Soybean futures followed corn and wheat markets lower on economic concerns, with stepped-up competition from Argentine supplies adding pressure.
Argentina’s devaluation of its peso earlier this month helped spur soy exports. China booked as much as 3 MMT in the past two weeks, almost as much as the roughly 3.75 MMT it imported from Argentina all of last year, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
China will auction another 500,000 MT of imported soybeans from state-owned reserves Sept. 30. China has been selling state-owned soybean stockpiles onto the domestic market on a regular basis since March.
India’s palm oil imports could jump 23% in 2022-23 to an eight-year high of 9.5 MMT, as a rebound in consumption and competitive prices prompt refiners to increase purchases, the country’s top palm oil buyer said.
Malaysian palm oil prices will plunge to 2,500 ringgit ($547.29) by the end of December, weighed down by improving production, demand destruction and a slowdown in major economies, an analyst said.
November soybeans fell under the 100-day moving average at $14.47 and dropped as low as $14.20 1/2, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Sept. 12. The contract is down from $14.48 1/2 at the end of last week.

Wheat futures are down 20-plus cents.

Wheat futures led declines in the grain and soy complex as economic concerns triggered a broad commodity selloff, though wheat prices are still up for the week.
U.S. HRW areas received rains ranging from a trace to 0.30 inch over the past day. The moisture “was welcome, but more rain will be needed to break the region’s drought and ensure the best winter crop development potential,” World Weather Inc. said.
Russia’s wheat export tax for Sept. 28-Oct. 4 will be 2,476.6 rubles ($42.39) per MT based on an indicative price of $308.20. That’s down from a rate of 2,668.3 rubles per MT the previous week and the seventh straight weekly decline.
The Philippines purchased 45,000 MT of Australian feed wheat.
December SRW wheat fell as low as $8.76 3/4 but is still up from $8.59 3/4 at the end of last week. Initial support comes in at the 10-day moving average at $8.71 3/4.

Live cattle futures are lower at midmorning, while feeders are mostly firmer.

Live cattle fell to the lowest levels in over a week as weakness in wholesale beef and recession concerns overshadow firmness in the cash market.
Feeder cattle are gaining support from weakness in corn futures.
USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon is expected to show feedlot placements down 2.7% from year-ago, based on a Reuters survey. The expected drop in placements would be the sixth year-over-year decline out of eight months this year. The total Sept. 1 feedlot inventory is expected to be unchanged from a year earlier, while August marketings are expected to be up 5.9% from year-ago.
Choice beef cutout values fell 73 cents Thursday to $248.40, near an 18-month low.
USDA-reported live steers averaged $144.90 through Thursday morning, up from last week's $143.19 average.
October live cattle fell as low as $144.125, the contract’s lowest intraday price since September 15. The contract is down from $145.50 at the end of last week.

Hog futures are lower, led by declines in December and February contracts.

Lean hogs fell for a fifth consecutive session amid expectations for seasonal weakness and concern over demand.
The CME lean hog index is up 5 cents to $98.01 (as of Sept. 21), ending a two-day slide. While the cash index has stabilized after a sharp drop the previous five weeks, October futures’ discount to the index indicates traders anticipate further price pressure.
Pork cutout values rose $3.53 Thursday to $103.88.
China’s average pork price slipped 0.3% during the week ended Sept. 16 to 30.61 yuan ($4.38) per kilogram, though that was still 77.9% above year-ago. China is selling state-owned frozen pork reserves onto the domestic market to tame prices ahead of the upcoming holiday season.
October lean hogs fell as low as $93.05, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Sept. 13, and is down from $96.90 at the end of last week.

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