Market Snapshot | September 11, 2023

Corn is mostly unchanged to a penny lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are facing spillover pressure from the wheat market, though notable weekly inspection data and U.S. dollar weakness are limiting losses.
• The European Union’s crop monitoring serving sharply raised its forecast of Ukraine’s corn crop to 32.79 MMT, up from June’s estimate of 29.11 MMT. While the forecast increased notably, it was still 3% below the five-year average and 22% below the 2021 crop harvested before the war began.
• USDA reported export inspections of 623,862 MT (24.6 million bu.), which were up 141,043 MT from the previous week and 4.3% ahead of the same time a year ago. Traders were expecting inspections to range from 375,000 to 750,000 MT.
• December corn futures are trading narrowly within Friday’s lower range, with initial support at $4.80 3/4, while initial resistance stands at $4.87 1/2.

Soybeans are 5 to 6 cents higher, while December meal futures are around $1.00 higher. December soyoil is around 25 points higher.

• Soybean futures are extending Friday’s gains ahead of USDA’s September crop reports on Tuesday.
• USDA reported a daily sale of 185,000 MT of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines for the 2023-24 marketing year.
• USDA reported export inspections of 310,073 MT (11.4 million bu.), which were down 96,861 MT from the previous week and near the low-end of the of the pre-report range of 300,000 to 725,000 MT.
• Malaysian palm oil futures fell for the sixth straight session overnight after data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed an increase in inventories and declining exports in the world’s second biggest producer of the oil.
• November soybeans are hovering above the 20- and 40-day moving averages, which have converged at $13.61, though the 10-day moving average of $13.75 continues to serve up notable resistance.  

SRW wheat futures are 10 to 11 cents lower, while HRW futures are mostly 11 to 14 cents lower. HRS contracts are around 6 to 8 cents lower.

• December SRW wheat has notched a fresh contract low, with ample Russian supplies pressuring the complex.
• Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov commented over the weekend that Russia will return to the Black Sea grain deal “the same day” as Moscow’s conditions for export of its own grain and fertilizers to the global markets are met.
• USDA reported export inspections of 406,181 MT (14.9 million bu.), which were up 88,105 MT from the previous week and near the upper estimate of the pre-report range of 225,000 to 450,000 MT.
• December SRW futures continue to be hemmed by the 10-day moving average of $6.01 1/4 and have dropped to new lows, breaching support at $5.89 3/4. Additional support lies at $5.84.

Live cattle are posting moderate gains, while feeders are sharply higher.

• Live cattle futures are moderately higher as traders wait for confirmation of last week’s cash cattle trade.
• Cash cattle trade averaged $182.75 as of Friday morning, which was a quarter higher than the previous week. Traders will have to wait until later today to get the official average cash cattle price from last week, though all indication suggest prices firmed, ending a month-long string of declines. Traders expect the cash market to strengthen again this week, but active trade won’t likely be seen until late in the week.
• Choice boxed beef rose $1.24 on Friday to $312.90, while Select fell 12 cents to $286.05, taking the Choice/Select spread to $26.85. Movement totaled 107 loads for the day.
• October live cattle have tested initial resistance at $183.77, with additional resistance at $184.31. Initial support lies at $182.72.

Lean hogs are marking corrective gains at midsession.

• October lean hogs are notching corrective gains amid wholesale strength and near-term stabilization of the lean hog index.
• The CME lean hog index is up 8 cents, marking the second straight daily gain after a string of declines since late July. The 26-cent gain the past two days suggests the cash market has stabilized and may tick up into October before a stronger seasonal downturn through winter.
• The pork cutout value rose $3.59 on Friday to $97.80, led by strength in primal bellies. Movement totaled 205.8 loads for the day.
• October lean hogs have edged back above the 40- and 10-day moving averages of $82.19 and $82.40, respectively, with resistance at $83.64. Initial support lies at $81.77.