Market Snapshot | November 23, 2021

Corn futures are around a penny higher at midsession after erasing overnight declines.

• Futures are recovering modestly from overnight weakness via spillover support from firmer wheat prices.
• Late yesterday, USDA reported the U.S. corn harvest at 95% complete as of Nov. 21, up from 91% a week earlier and slightly under trade expectations for 96%.
• Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier kept his Brazilian corn crop estimate unchanged at 118 MMT with a neutral bias.
• For Argentina, Cordonnier kept his production estimates at 53 MMT for corn, with a neutral bias.
• Market bulls have a near-term technical advantage with prices in a five-week uptrend, but December corn has failed so far to make a sustained push above a longer-term downtrend line drawn from the May and June highs.
• Chart levels watch include yesterday’s low at $5.69 3/4, along with last week’s low and high at $5.68 and $5.84, respectively.

Soymeal futures are $5-plus  lower in the most actively traded contracts, with soybeans down 5 to 6 cents while soyoil is slightly higher.

• January soybeans are holding within yesterday’s range overnight as the market waits for export news.
• Growing conditions in South America remain favorable. Southern Brazil will receive “important rain” Nov. 25-26 before a drier weather pattern begins this weekend,” World Weather Inc. said.
• Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean crop estimate at 144 MMT, but his bias changed to neutral from neutral to slightly higher the past several weeks due to a drier forecast for southern Brazil.  
• For Argentina, Cordonnier kept his soybean production estimate at 50 MMT, with a neutral bias.
• USDA said 95% of the U.S. soybean crop was harvested as of Nov. 21, up from 92% a week earlier and slightly under trade expectations for 96%.
• Chart levels to watch in January futures include yesterday’s low at $12.60, along with last week’s low and high at $12.38 and $12.89 1/4, respectively.

HRW and spring wheat futures are higher, while SRW futures are mixed.

• HRW futures extended a rally to nine-year highs after USDA’s latest weekly crop condition ratings showed unexpected deterioration in the winter wheat crop.
• USDA late yesterday reported the winter wheat crop condition at 44% “good” or “excellent” as of Nov. 21, down from 46% the previous week. Analysts expected the rating to hold at 46%. Wheat rated “poor” or “very poor” rose to 22% from 20%.
• When USDA’s weekly crop condition ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop declined 3.3 points to 329.6, while the SRW crop fell 9.4 points to 357.8.
• The HRW crop is 10 points below the five-year average for this date. The SRW CCI rating is now four points below its five-year average, the first time below average this fall.
• Little moisture relief is expected for the dry areas of the western HRW belt during the week ahead, World Weather said.
• Late-season rains in Australia are causing quality concerns with the crop, though production is expected to be the second highest on record.
• March HRW futures reached a contact high for the second straight day, hitting $8.74 3/4.

Cattle futures are higher at mid-morning, with live cattle climbing near three-month highs.

• Live cattle extended the past week’s gains behind recent cash strength, through this week’s market hasn’t yet established and packers may not be as aggressive with a holiday-shortened schedule. Early weakness in corn supported feeder cattle.
• Live steers in five top feedlot regions last week averaged $133.11, up 1.2% from the previous week for the seventh straight weekly gain and the highest weekly average since June 2017.
• Choice cutout values rose 84 cents on Monday to $279.25 on movement of 124 loads. The market’s drop under $280.00 late last week appeared to stir retailer buying, similar to previous price action earlier this year.
• China’s customs authorities said they will accept import applications for Brazilian beef that was granted a sanitary certificate prior to Sept. 4. Brazil suspended exports of beef to China on that date after detecting two cases of atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE).
• February live cattle rose as high as $139.30, the highest intraday price since $139.525 on Aug. 26.

Lean hog futures are lower after fading from an early upturn.

• Hog futures are trading near six-week highs but struggling to generate much buying interest amid weak cash fundamentals.
• The CME lean hog index is down another 57 cents today to $72.88, the lowest since Feb. 10. The national direct average carcass price fell 4 cents to $54.91.
• Pork carcass cutout values yesterday fell $3.57 to an average of $86.25, again erasing a morning gain as primal hams dropped over $10.00. Movement was strong at nearly 385 loads.
• Chart levels to watch in February hogs include a six-week intraday high at $83.725, reached yesterday.