Market Snapshot | March 9, 2022

Corn futures are lower at midmorning, with old-crop contracts down mostly 11 to 13 cents.

• Corn futures are under profit-taking pressure as wheat prices drop sharply for a second straight day. Traders await USDA’s March Supply and Demand Report at 11 a.m. CT.
• Traders will be watching to see if USDA increase U.S. corn exports to reflect major uncertainties with Black Sea grain shipments.
• USDA is expected to lower its Brazilian corn crop estimate for the second month in a row by about 1 MMT to 112.98 MMT, based on a Reuters survey of analysts. Argentina’s crop estimate is expected to be reduced nearly 2 MMT to 52.09 MMT.
• U.S. ethanol production increased 31,000 barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended March 4 to 1.028 million bpd, up 9.6% from the same week a year ago, the Energy Information Administration reported. Ethanol stocks increased 338,000 barrels to 25.271 million barrels.
• May corn futures traded within Tuesday’s range after rising 2 1/4 cents yesterday to $7.53. Friday’s contract high at $7.82 1/2 marks key resistance.

Soy complex futures are mostly higher, with nearby soybeans up around 7 cents but down from overnight advances.

• Nearby soybeans rose ahead of USDA’s Supply and Demand Report, which is expected to include a third straight monthly reduction in Brazil’s crop production estimate.
• USDA is expected to lower its Brazilian soybean crop projection to about 129.01 MMT, down from 134 MMT from February.
• Argentina’s crop estimate is expected to be cut to 43.39 MMT from 45 MMT last month. Global soybean ending stocks for 2021-22 are expected to be lowered by about 3.37 MMT to 89.46 MMT, the lowest since 78.6 MMT in 2015-16.
• Indonesia is expanding its limits on exports of palm oil due to rising cooking oil prices. In restrictions that will run for at least six months, Indonesia will require firms to sell 30% of planned exports of crude palm oil and olein domestically, an increase from the 20% level currently in place.
• China lowered its 2021-22 edible oil import forecast by 800,000 MT to 8.5 MMT, as drought in South America, palm oil export restrictions in Indonesia and the conflict in Ukraine limited supplies and sent prices soaring.
• USDA reported a daily sale of 20,000 MT of soyoil to “unknown destinations” for 2021-22. For the first time in the past nine business days, USDA did not announce a daily sale of soybeans to China or unknown destinations.
• May soybeans overnight reached $17.34, the highest intraday price since the contract high of $17.59 1/4 posted Feb. 24. May soybean oil hit a contract high at 78.58 cents.

Wheat futures are sharply lower, led by losses of over 70 cents nearby winter wheat contracts.

• Winter wheat fell sharply for second consecutive day.
• Ukraine’s government has banned exports of rye, barley, buckwheat, millet, sugar, salt and meat until the end of this year, according to a cabinet resolution. Notably missing from the export ban are corn, wheat and sunflower oil.
• Jordan cancelled a tender to buy 120,000 MT of milling wheat. Japan tendered to buy 80,000 MT of feed wheat and 100,000 MT of feed barley.
• May SRW wheat is trading within yesterday’s unusually wide $1.99 1/2 range, which included a contract high at $13.63 1/2.

Cattle futures are mostly lower at midmorning.

• Live cattle futures fell as the cash trade showed continued signs of erosion and demand concerns lingered over high retail prices and the Russia/Ukraine war.
• Cash trade around $138 was reported in the Southern Plains early this week and $222 in the northern dressed market, down more than $2 from last week.
• Choice cutout values fell $2.27 yesterday to $252.44, the lowest since April 1. Movement was strong at 194 loads. April live cattle climbed $1.15 to $139.05 and April feeders gained 65 cents to $60.325.
• Feeder cattle weakness is being limited by declining corn futures.

Lean hog futures are sharply lower, led by the nearby April contract.

• Hog futures found no followthrough buying from yesterday’s corrective upturn and are under pressure from softening cash fundamentals.
• The CME lean hog index is down for a fourth consecutive day, dropping 24 cents to $99.00. Pork cutout values fell $1.25 yesterday to $105.40. Movement totaled nearly 298 loads.
• April lean hog futures are pivoting around Tuesday’s low. The lead contract posted a four-week low of $98.475 Monday.