Market Snapshot | January 25, 2024

Corn futures are 4 to 5 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are facing pressure from selling in the soy complex and dollar strength.
• USDA reported net corn sales of 954,800 MT for 2023-24 during the week ended Jan. 18, down 36% from the previous week but up 45% from the four-week average. Sales were near the middle of expectations from 725,000 MT to 1.4 MMT.
• Central and southern Argentina are still not advertised to receive much “significant” rainfall over the next 10 days. Showers are expected after Feb. 3, though most of the precip will be light and may not counter evaporation very well, states World Weather Inc.
• March corn futures are being supported by the 10-day moving average of $4.47 1/4, while the 20-day moving average of $4.56 1/4 serves as resistance.

Soybean futures are mostly 13 to 23 cents lower, while March soymeal is more than $5.00 lower. March soyoil is around 100 points lower.

• Soybeans are notably lower following poor weekly export data and heavy selling in meal and soyoil futures.
• USDA reported net soybean sales of 560,900 MT for the week ended Jan. 18, which were down 28% from the previous week but up 6% from the four-week average. Net sales missed the expected pre-report range of 700,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
• World Weather notes Brazil’s rain will stay mostly in the north during this first week of the outlook period but is expected to move southward in the second week bringing moisture back to all areas that had been drying out for the previous week to 10 days.
•  March soybeans have dropped back below the 10-day moving average, currently trading at $12.24 1/2, with the next area of support at last week’s low of $12.01. Resistance stands at the 20-day moving average of $12.49 1/4.

SRW wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents lower, while HRW and HRS contracts are mixed.

• SRW wheat futures worked slightly higher initially this morning, but buyer interest has dried up given strength in the U.S. dollar and a lack of supportive news.
• USDA reported net wheat sales of 451,400 MT during the week ended Jan. 18, down 36% from the previous week but up 45% from the four-week average. Sales were within the pre-report range of 200,000 to 625,000 MT.
• World Weather Inc. reports U.S. wheat conditions have not changed much recently and there is still some concern about possible crop damage from recent bitter cold in the northwestern Plains.
• March SRW futures are being limited by resistance at $6.16 1/2, while support now stands at the 40-, 100- and 20-day moving averages of $6.10 1/4, $6.05 1/2 and $6.04 3/4.

Live cattle are choppy, while feeders are slightly to moderately lower at midmorning.

• Nearby live cattle are pivoting around unchanged in directionless trade.  
• Cash sources reported initial cash cattle trade around $174.00 in Texas on Wednesday, which would be up $1.00 from last week’s activity in the state. While movement was limited in other areas, this sets the expectation cash prices will be at least $1.00 higher than last week’s average of $173.76.
• Wholesale beef values fell Wednesday, with Choice dropping $2.16 to $299.50, while Select slid $1.14 lower to $287.24, narrowing the Choice/Select spread to $12.26. Movement increased to 126 loads.
• For the week ended Jan. 18, USDA reported net beef sales of 22,400 MT for 2024.
• February live cattle have reached the highest level since Nov. 22, but continue to face resistance at $174.86, while initial support remains at $165.66.

Lean hogs are modestly weaker at midsession.

• February hog futures are pausing following two days of strong gains.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 63 cents to $69.39 as of Jan. 23, and is up $4.34 from the low formed at the beginning of the month. Last year at this time, the cash index was just putting in a seasonal low, though his year’s price is still $2.72 below a year ago.
• The pork cutout value rose 83 cents to $88.86, led higher by a $7 gain in primal bellies. Movement totaled 284.8 loads.
• For the week ended Jan. 18, USDA reported net pork sales of 24,100 MT for 2024.
• China’s customs administration began allowing the import of pork from qualified regions of Russia that don’t have African swine fever.
• February lean hogs gapped higher at the open and have traded the highest level since Nov. 21, though resistance at $74.40 continues to limit gains. Initial support lies at the 100-day moving average of $73.22.