Market Snapshot | Grains, soy edge higher ahead of USDA

Corn futures are mostly 9 cents higher at midmorning.

• Corn futures are posting solid short-covering gains ahead of USDA’s August Production and WASDE report release, as strength in wheat drives grains higher.
• USDA will release its Production and WASDE reports at 11 a.m. CT. A Reuters poll shows analysts expect 2026-27 corn production to land at 15.934 billion bu., using a yield of 182.4 bushels per acre. If realized, that would be a 66-million-bushel decline from July’s production estimate and a 0.6 bu. Per acre decline from USDA’s July yield estimate. Old-crop ending stocks are expected at 1.999 billion bu., with new-crop ending stocks at 1.725 billion bu. Analysts will also be closely tuned into global production figures.
• September corn futures are facing support at the 40-day moving average, trading at $4.37 1/2, while the 20-, 200- and 100-day moving averages, layered from $4.48 to $4.53 3/4 serve as resistance.

Soybeans are 8 to 9 cents higher while meal is around $2.50 higher. Soyoil is fractionally lower.

• Soybeans are edging higher in tandem with meal futures, with support from continued demand from China.
• USDA reported daily sales of 244,000 MT of soybeans to China during 2026-27.
• Analysts expect USDA to peg 2026-27 soybean production at 4.472 billion bu., which would be down 3 million bu. from July, if realized. Analysts also expect yield to be shaved by 0.1 bu. to 52.9 bu. per acre. Old-crop ending stocks are expected at 321 million bu., on average, while new-crop ending stocks are expected at 304 million bu.
• China’s drive to buy large volumes of US soybeans — a commitment under last year’s trade truce — risks being complicated by a lack of participation from the country’s private traders, according to a Bloomberg report. “Purchases of soybeans have accelerated in recent weeks, ahead of an expected September summit between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump. But the buying splurge is being spearheaded by China’s giant state—owned agricultural traders, with the private sector largely sitting on the sidelines because the trade isn’t commercially viable,” said the report.
• September soybeans are up against resistance at the 40- and 10-day moving average, each trading around $11.82, while the 100-day moving average, trading at $11.71 1/2 continues to serve up initial support.

Winter wheat futures are 22 to 30 cents higher, while HRS futures are around 18 cents higher.

• SRW wheat futures are posting solid short-covering gains as tensions linger in the Black Sea region.
• A Reuters poll shows analysts expect USDA to peg all wheat production at 1.525 billion bu., which would be down 11 million bu. from July, if realized. Winter wheat production is expected to decline 9 million bu., to 981 million bu. On average, ending stocks are expected to decline 7 million bu. From July to 715 million bu.
• Three grain terminals in Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk were damaged in a massive overnight drone attack, as Ukraine escalated strikes on key maritime infrastructure, said a Bloomberg report. “A loading gallery at United Grain Co.’s Novorossiysk Grain Plant crashed to the ground after the strikes, people familiar with the matter said.
• September SRW futures are being supported by the 40- and 100-day moving averages, layered at $6.35 ½ and $6.32 ½, while resistance stands at $6.54 ½, which is backed by the 20-day moving average.

Live cattle and feeders are notably lower at midsession.

• Nearby live cattle continue to be pressured by technical resistance.
• Nearly 30,000 pounds of Argentine beef that wasn’t fully inspected before being distributed in Texas and Florida are being recalled, the US Department of Agriculture said and as reported by Bloomberg. The USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service announced that Florida-based Corte Argentino LLC was recalling several cuts of beef that missed a “reinspection” step when they entered the U.S.
• Boxed beef declined on Tuesday, with Choice down 11 cents to $371.31 and Select down $1.04 to $349.80. Movement improved to 124 loads.
• October live cattle are testing support at the 20-day moving average, with additional support serving at $223.30, which is backed by the July 27 low of $216.95. Resistance is layered at the 10- and 200-day moving averages, trading at $226.62 and $227.90.

Hog futures are mixed at midday.

• Nearby lean hogs are modestly weaker, while deferreds post slight gains.
• The CME lean hog index is down 15 cents to $95.94 as of Aug. 10.
• The pork cutout value slid 33 cents on Tuesday to $101.48 amid declines in all cuts aside from primal bellies and butts. Movement totaled 271.8 loads.
• October lean hogs are facing initial resistance at the 40-day moving average of $84.10,while initial support is at $82.69, which is backed by last week’s low of $81.325.