Market Snapshot | December 30, 2022

Corn futures are 1 to 2 cents higher at midsession.

• Corn futures are trading mildly higher from spillover strength in the wheat and soy complex with additional support from crude oil futures and ongoing weather concerns in Argentina.
• Grain and livestock markets trade normal hours today ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. All markets will be closed on Monday, Jan. 2 in observance of New Year’s Day.
• USDA released weekly export sales of 781,600 MT for week ended Dec. 22, up from the previous week’s sales of 636,800 MT and near the middle of expectations which ranged from 600,000 to 850,000 MT. Net sales of 170,000 MT were also reported for the 2023-24 marketing year.
• If rain stays limited through the first half of January acreage reductions will become permanent and emerged and established crops will begin dealing with waves of stress due to warm weather until significant rain falls, according to World Weather, Inc.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated Argentina’s corn crop 15% good/excellent (unchanged from last week) 57% normal (down two points) and 28% poor (up two points).
• March corn remains within the previous session’s trading range, which marked the highest close since Nov. 4. Initial support lies at the 100-day moving average of $6.70 3/4 followed by 40-day moving average of $6.62 3/4.

Soybeans are moderately higher with nearby soymeal up over $11.00 and soyoil over 260 points lower.

• Soybeans continue higher on technical buying at the end of the year as weather concerns persist in Argentina with strong export demand underpinning soymeal strength.
• Weekly export sales for week ended Dec. 22 were reported at 705,800 MT for the 2022-23 marketing, near the middle of expectations which ranged between 500,000 and 900,000 MT.
• USDA also reported a daily export sale of 186,000 MT to unknown destinations during the 2022-23 marketing year.
• World Weather, Inc. notes rain potentials in Argentina are only good for Saturday into Monday, with most of the rain not likely to have a lasting impact on crops or soil moisture even though most crop areas will at least get some moisture.
• Brazil weather has not changed in recent days, both past and forecast weather seems to be similar as each day comes and goes and the bottom line remains favorable for most of the nation’s crops, according to World Weather.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange rated Argentina’s soybean crop 10% good/excellent (down two points from last week), 62% normal (down one point) and 28% poor (up three points).
• March soybeans reached $15.24 1/4, the contract’s highest intraday price since June 17. Initial support is seen at 14.96 1/2, then the 10-day moving average of $14.81 3/4.

Wheat futures are higher, led by 19 to 21 cent gains in HRW contracts.

• Wheat futures turned higher as production prospects decline in Argentina and persisting drought conditions in HRW growing regions in the U.S.
• Argentina’s wheat harvest estimates could fall again due to late frosts and historic droughts. Reuters reports harvested areas in the center and south of Buenos Aires continue to report below average yields and significant variability.
• U.S. hard red winter wheat production areas will continue to be quite dry during the next two weeks, despite a couple of storm systems moving through the region, according to World Weather.
• USDA’s weekly export sales for week ended Dec. 22 revealed sales of 478,100 MT, up from the previous week’s sales of 334,200 MT and above expectations between 200,000 and 450,000 MT.
• March SRW traded as high as $7.99, the highest intraday level since Nov. 30. Initial support lies near $7.85 and $7.75 1/4.

Live cattle and feeder cattle are lower at midmorning.

• Live cattle futures are slightly lower after reaching new contract highs in the previous session, but steady wholesale beef and expectations for firming cash cattle should limit losses.
• Cash cattle trade started in the $157 to $158 range in the Southern Plains and around $248 to $250 in the northern dressed markets—$1 to $2 higher than last week in both markets.
• Packers increased slaughter runs significantly from week-ago to take advantage of the recent surge in wholesale Choice beef prices and improved margins.
• Choice cutout values fell on Thursday to $278.86, an additional 55-cent crop, while select rose $3.42 to $250.70. Movement continues to be light at 101 loads.
• February live cattle remain within the previous session’s range, with initial support at $157.95, then at $157.06.

Hog futures are mixed, with nearby contracts lower.

• Nearby lean hogs extend the previous session’s weakness as profit-taking and year-end positioning before the extended holiday weekend weigh on prices.
• The cash market continues to signal a seasonal low, after surging $2.09 Thursday, the CME lean hog index is up a modest 5 cents to $80.74 (as of Dec. 28), with cash prices firming amid tightness in market-ready supplies.
• Pork cutout values fell 79 cents on Thursday to $87.88.
• The weekly Iowa/southern Minnesota report for week ended Dec. 24 showed the average weight of hogs at 238.2 lbs., down 7.6 lbs. from year-ago.
• February lean hogs continue to fade as buyers are limited after reaching three-week highs earlier in the week. Initial support lies at the 40-day moving average near $87.61.