Market Snapshot | December 19, 2022

Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents lower at midsession.

• Corn futures extended overnight declines as weekend rains in South America eased concerns over potential crop shortfalls from extended dryness.
• Needed rains fell on areas of southern Brazil over the weekend, but more will be needed to reverse the dry pattern. Northwestern areas of Argentina also received weekend rainfall, while other parts of the country were dry.
• USDA reported corn inspected for export during the week ended Dec. 15 at 743,420 MT (29.3 million bu.), up from 517,417 MT last week and within trade expectations ranging from 450,000 to 900,000 MT.
• USDA reported a daily sale of 141,000 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2022-23 marketing year.
• March corn futures fell as low as $6.44, the contract’s lowest price since $6.42 on Dec. 9. Initial support comes in at the Aug. 22 high, followed by a 3 1/2-month low of $6.35 posted Dec. 7.

Soybeans are 6 to 17 cents lower and nearby soymeal is around $10 lower, while nearby soyoil is up more than 80 points.

• Soybean futures fell to the lowest levels in a week after rains reached some dry areas of South America over the weekend.
• Argentina’s rainfall outlook has improved, with rain expected Friday into Sunday that will boost topsoil moisture and reduce crop stress, World Weather Inc. said. “Follow-up rainfall will be imperative to induce a true trend change,” the forecaster added.
• In Brazil, timely rainfall is expected in most top production regions the next two weeks, World Weather said, though some net drying is possible in the far south and in parts of Paraguay.
• USDA reported a daily sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to “unknown destinations” during the 2022-23 marketing year.
• USDA reported soybeans inspected for export during the week ended Dec. 15 at 1.62 MMT (59.5 million bu.), down from 1.878 MMT last week and at the low end of trade expectations ranging from 1.5 to 2.12 MMT.
• Malaysian palm oil is expected to trade at between 3,500 and 5,000 ringgit per MT from now until the end of May as stocks in the commodity’s top two producer countries deplete, Reuters reported, citing leading industry analyst Dorab Mistry said.
• Large speculators in mid-December boosted their bullish bets in the soymeal futures and options market to the highest level since May 2018, based on Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
• March soybeans fell as low as $14.63 3/4, the contract’s lowest intraday price since $14.62 1/2 on Dec. 12 and matching 20-day moving average support. Further support comes in at the 40-day moving average of $14.49 1/2.

Wheat futures are mixed, with SRW contracts down 1 to 2 cents and HRW down 4 to 6 cents, while spring wheat is up 1 to 2 cents.

• SRW futures rebounded from overnight declines as corrective buying emerged after prices held above last week’s lows.
• USDA reported wheat inspected for export during the week ended Dec. 15 at 304,108 MT (11.2 million bu.), up from 219,358 MT last week and at the low end of trade expectations ranging from 200,000 to 600,000 MT.
• Using a low-profile fleet of ships under U.S. sanctions, Syria has this year sharply increased wheat imports from the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea that Russia annexed from Ukraine, Reuters reported.
• Soft wheat production in the European Union and the United Kingdom is expected to rise to 143.2 MMT in 2023, up from 140.7 MMT in 2022, European grain trade association Coceral said. France, the EU’s biggest wheat producer, was projected to harvest 34.1 MMT in 2023, up from 33.6 MMT.
• March SRW wheat earlier fell under the 10-day moving average at $7.49 1/2 and dropped as low as $7.38 3/4, near last week’s low of $7.37 3/4. Further weakness may prompt bears to target a 14-month low of $7.23 1/2, posted Dec. 6.

Live cattle are mixed at midmorning, while feeder cattle are lower.

• Nearby live cattle futures are higher behind strength in wholesale beef and expectations cash prices will remain supported by tight supplies even as the holidays limit packer buying the rest of the year.
• Live steers averaged $155.56 last week through Thursday morning, down just 23 cents from last week’s average and near the 7 1/2-year high posted earlier this month. Packers have restricted cash cattle purchases the past two weeks and will be buying for holiday-shortened kills the remainder of the year.
• Choice beef cutout values surged $8.53 Friday to $262.83, the highest daily average since Nov. 10, but movement slowed sharply to 71 loads.
• February live cattle rose as high as $156.175. Initial resistance is seen at the high of $156.775 last week.

Hog futures are mixed, with the nearby February contract down slightly but spring 2023 contracts firmer.

• Nearby lean hog futures are under light pressure from corrective selling following Friday’s rally and continued sluggishness in the cash market.
• The CME lean hog index is down 33 cents to $81.55 (as of Dec. 15), ending a string of three consecutive daily gains.
• Pork cutout values rose $1.95 Friday to $87.44, down $1.12 from a week ago. Movement slowed sharply to 212 loads.
• China imported 180,000 MT of pork in November, up 20,000 MT (12.5%) from October but 11.1% below year-ago. For the first 11 months of this year China imported 1.56 MMT of pork, down 56% from the same period last year.
• February lean hogs rose as high as $86.55, the highest intraday price since Dec.7, before fading.