Market Snapshot | CPI data turns dollar up into USDA’s November crop reports

Corn futures are mostly unchanged to a penny higher.

• Corn futures are posting modest gains ahead of USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE reports, due out at 11 a.m. CT.
• USDA reported daily sales of 312,700 MT to Mexico during 2026-27.
• Traders are awaiting the November Crop Production and WASDE reports, due out at 11 a.m. CT. Analysts expect corn yield to be trimmed 0.9 bushels per acre to 180.3 bpa, with production estimated at 15.962 billion bu., on average. Ending stocks are expected to decline modestly from October’s estimated to 1.840 billion bu.
• USDA said 81% of the corn crop was harvested as of Sunday, up from 74% a week earlier, behind the five-year average of 86% for this time of year.
• Dr. Michael Cordonnier reports farmers in Brazil’s largest grain producing state of Mato Grosso are exploring alternatives to safrinha corn as a second crop in the face of climate risks. Two of the new alternative crops are sesame and mung beans, which have less water needs and lower production costs.
• Dr. Cordonnier maintained his South American 2026-27 corn production estimates for Brazil and Argentina at 140 MMT and 60 MMT, respectively. He noted, however, that farmers in Argentina may end up planting more corn than originally intended as planting efforts are ahead of normal for this time of year.
• December corn futures are facing support at this week’s low of $4.38, while the 10-day moving average of $4.44 1/2 continues to serve up resistance.

Soybeans are mostly unchanged to a penny lower, while meal is around $1.50 lower. Soyoil is fractionally lower.

• Soybeans are posting modest short-covering gains in midmorning trade, as stiff technical resistance looms above current levels.
• USDA reported daily sales of 150,000 MT of soybeans to Mexico during 2026-27.
• Analysts expect USDA to increase the soybean yield by 0.4 bushels per acre to 53.5 bpa, while production is estimated at 4.597 billion bu., down modestly from October. Ending stocks are expected at 331 million bu., on average, which would be a 16-million-bushel increase from October.
• USDA pegged soybean harvest at 92% finished, up from 88% a week earlier. It was two percentage points behind the average estimate but a percentage point ahead of the five-year average.
• China’s agricultural ministry raised its 2025-26 soybean import estimate to 111.62 MMT and left its 2026-27 import forecast unchanged, according to its November outlook released earlier today.
• Brazil’s government expects tests for diesel containing 20% biodiesel to finish in March, Marlon Arraes, a senior official at the Ministry of Mines and Energy said earlier today, adding that approval for the blend’s futures use could follow in May or October.
• January soybeans are being supported by this week’s low of $11.84, which is backed by support at $11.82 1/4. Resistance is layered at $11.98 and $12.00, which is backed by the 200 and 10-day moving averages.

Wheat futures are 3 to 5 cents higher.

• SRW wheat futures are posting short-covering gains despite a notably firmer U.S. dollar following a hotter-than-expected CPI reading this morning.
• Analysts expect USDA to peg wheat ending stocks at 746 million bushels, on average, which would be up slightly from October. Global ending stocks are expected to rise modestly as well to 276.44 MMT.
• A new round of talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials got under way in Abu Dhabi Tuesday, with U.S. negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son in law, leading mediation efforts,Bloomberg reported.
• Winter wheat plantings were 89% complete, just below the 90% average estimate, which is also the five-year average. USDA said 49% of the winter wheat crop was rated good or excellent, up five percentage points from the previous week and topping the average estimate of 46%. The Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500 scale, 500 equals perfect) for hard red winter wheat rose a substantial 11.29 points to 337.44 this week. Click here to read more.
• December SRW futures continue to find support at this week’s low of $65.85, while the 10-day moving average, trading at $5.98 1/4 is initial resistance.

Live cattle and feeders are higher at midsession.

• Cattle futures are extending Monday’s gains amid corrective buying following the recent selloff.
• Cash cattle trade averaged $215.43 last week, down $8.30 from the previous week.
• Choice boxed beef rose $1.95 on Monday to $362.74, while Select rose 17 cents to $353.73. Movement was light, however, at only 69 loads.
• December live cattle are facing support at $214.28, which is backed by last week’s low of $210.85, while resistance stands at $218.53, then at the 10-day moving average.

Hog futures are mixed at midday.

• Nearby lean hogs are slightly firmer, still limited by technical resistance and cash fundamentals.
• The CME lean hog index is down $1.29 to $60.28 as of Nov. 6.
• The pork cutout value rose 16 cents on Monday to $70.81, with gains in loins and ribs offsetting declines in other cuts. Movement totaled 336.0 loads.
• December lean hogs are facing resistance at the 10-day moving average, trading at $57.17, while initial support lies at $55.30, which is backed by last week’s low of $53.175.