Corn is mostly 4 to 5 cents higher.
- Corn futures are extending their corrective rebound from Monday’s contract lows as funds cover short positions.
- Weather is now expected to be warmer and drier than previously expected from late this weekend into early next week. The high pressure ridge is not expected to stay over the Midwest for more than a few days.
- Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Tuesday said Mexico will take action if an agreement with Washington regarding new tariffs is not reached by the Aug. 1 deadline set by Trump.
- Ethanol production averaged 1.087 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended July 11, up 2,000 bpd 0.2%) from last week, but 19,000 bpd (1.7%) below the same week last year. Ethanol stocks declined 324,000 barrels to 23.635 million barrels.
- September corn futures continue to face resistance at the 10-day moving average of $4.03 3/4, while support lies at $4.00 and then $3.95 1/2.
Soybeans are around 16 cents higher, while meal futures are nearly $4.00 higher. Soyoil is marginally higher.
- Soybeans are firmer amid corrective gains in soymeal futures and a temporary hotter, drier forecast for late this weekend into early next week.
- USDA reported daily soybean sales of 120,000 MT to unknown destinations during 2025-26.
- The Trump administration finalized a trade agreement with Indonesia, reducing the proposed tariff rate from 32% to 19% in exchange for $15 billion in U.S. energy purchases, $4.5 billion in agricultural imports, and an order for 50 Boeing jets.
- Australia is close to an agreement with Beijing that would allow suppliers to ship five trial canola cargoes to China, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
- August soybean futures are extending from this week’s low of $9.93, which serves as support, while resistance is at $10.10 1/4.
Wheat futures are mixed in choppy trade at midmorning.
- Wheat futures are finding spillover support from corn and soybeans, though seasonal pressure is limiting buyer interest.
- In its first outlook for the 2025-26 season, France’s ag ministry forecasts French wheat exports outside the EU will jump 114% from last year’s historic low of 3.25 MMT to 7.5 MMT. French wheat exports within the bloc are forecast at 6.72 MMT, down 0.5% from 2024-25.
- Overnight, Taiwan purchased 89,650 MT of U.S. milling wheat. Jordan tendered to buy up to 120,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat. Thailand tendered to buy 60,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat.
- December SRW futures have tested, but continue to find support at $5.54 3/4, while resistance is layered at $5.60 1/4 and $5.64 1/4.
Live cattle are moderately firmer while feeders are posting strong gains at midsession.
- Nearby live cattle have scored fresh record highs amid elevated supply concerns as trade tensions heat up with Brazil.
- Brazilian meatpackers are weighing whether to make new shipments of beef products to the U.S. after President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazil last week, the president of Brazilian beef lobby ABIEC, said.
- Texas and federal officials are ramping up screwworm monitoring efforts as outbreaks in Mexico inch closer to the U.S. border, threatening the state’s $15 billion cattle industry. USDA and state labs, in partnership with Texas A&M, are deploying a five-point defense plan that includes border inspections, sterile fly releases and major facility upgrades.
- August live cattle futures have scored a fresh record high, with next resistance at $223.71, while initial support lies at $221.44.
Hog futures are moderately higher at midmorning.
- Nearby lean hogs are rebounding from recent losses amid ideas the pullback was overdone.
- Since halting a pullback from the seasonal high, the CME lean hog index has alternated “up” and “down” days. The latest quote is down 6 cents to $107.19 as of July 14.
- The pork cutout value rose 17 cents on Tuesday to $114.02, with gains in primal bellies and hams offsetting declines in all other cuts. Movement totaled 295.7 loads.
- August lean hogs gapped higher at the open, with resistance at the 10-day moving average of $105.82, while initial support is at the intraday low of $104.375.