Corn is mostly 1 to 3 cents lower.
- Corn futures are posting followthrough selling amid improving crop conditions and trade concerns.
- USDA rated the corn crop 74% “good” to “excellent” as of July 6, up one point from the previous week, while 5% was rated “poor” to “very poor.” In the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index, (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop inched up 0.6 point to 382.0, which is 6.7 points above year-ago.
- President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order (EO) that extends the effective date on the tariffs announced April 2 to Aug. 1. The tariffs initially were to take effect July 9. The brief order formalizes what Trump and other officials had signaled over the weekend. However, it is not yet clear that Aug. 1 will be a hard and fast deadline.
- USDA reported daily corn sales of 112,776 MT to Mexico for 2025-26.
- September corn futures posted a contract low at $3.96 3/4, which now serves as initial support.
Soybeans are 1 to 4 cents lower, while soymeal is around 70 cents lower. Soyoil is chopping around unchanged.
- Soybeans are facing followthrough selling but have moved off their earlier lows.
- USDA reported the soybean crop was 66% “good” to “excellent” as of July 6 and 7% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the soybean crop improved 1.9 points to 363.7, which is 1.7 points below year-ago.
- China warned the Trump administration against reigniting trade tension by restoring tariffs on its goods next month and threatened to retaliate against nations that strike deals with the U.S. to cut China out of supply chains. China has until Aug. 12 to reach an agreement with the U.S. to avoid additional tariffs.
- Thailand remains optimistic about avoiding a steep 36% U.S. tariff announced by Trump, with officials offering to slash import duties on 90% of American goods to zero. Thailand promised expanded market access for U.S. ag and industrial products, more energy imports and additional Boeing jet purchases — moves aimed at shrinking its $46 billion trade surplus with the U.S. by 70% within five years.
- Taiwan has sent a new, smaller team of officials to Washington, as last-ditch negotiations avoid 32% U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese exports if no agreement is reached by Aug.
- USDA reported daily soymeal sales of 144,000 MT to the Philippines. Of the total, 97,000 MT is for 2024-25 and 47,000 MT for 2025-26.
- Indonesian palm oil exports to the U.S. could drop by as much as 20% if Washington moves ahead with a proposed 32% tariff on Indonesian goods, an industry official told Reuters. Indonesia currently supplies 85% of U.S. palm oil imports
- August soybean futures continue to face resistance at the 10, 100-, 200-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $10.36 1/2 to $10.49 3/4. Support is at last week’s low of $10.16 3/4.
Wheat futures are mostly unchanged to 4 cents lower.
- Wheat futures are facing followthrough selling amid general weakness in grains.
- USDA rated the spring wheat crop as 50% “good” to “excellent” as of July 6, and 15% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the spring wheat crop declined 3.8 points to 351.6, which is 31.9 points below last year.
- Winter wheat harvest advanced 16 points to 53% as of July 6, still on point behind the five-year average.
- Wheat conditions in Canada are a concern with parts of the prairies losing yield potential because of dryness, while the U.S. Central Plains and dryland areas of the Pacific Northwest continue to face tough conditions.
- SovEcon raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports for 2025-26 by 2.1 MMT to 42.9 MMT. Wheat exports in the previous season are estimated at 40.8 MMT.
- December SRW futures are trading within Monday’s lower range, with initial support at $5.64 1/2, while resistance stands at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $5.62 3/4 to $5.80 1/2.
Live cattle and feeders are sharply higher at midsession.
- Live cattle are firmer for the fourth straight session as traders continue to narrow discounts to the cash market.
- Cash cattle averaged $229.43 last week, down 8 cents from the previous week. If Monday’s strong gains in cattle futures are extended, cash sources say negotiated prices could be about steady again this week as packer margins are positive.
- Mexico’s government said on Monday it has started to build a $51 million facility in the southern part of the country in an effort to combat screwworm. The plant, a joint project with the U.S., will produce 100 million sterile screwworm flies per week once completed in the first half of 2026. The U.S. is paying $21 million of the cost and Mexico is spending $30 million.
- August live cattle firmed to the highest level since June 12, with strong resistance at the contract high of $220.10. Support lies at Monday’s close of $215.90.
Hog futures are mostly lower at midmorning.
- Nearby lean hogs are near unchanged, while deferred contracts are under pressure.
- The CME lean hog index is down $1.18 to $108.33 as of July 3, the fifth straight daily decline during which it has dropped $3.69 from what appears to be the seasonal top of $112.02.
- Pork cutout rebounded $3.28 to $113.49 on Monday as all cuts firmed, led by an $11.18 jump in primal bellies.
- August lean hogs have found support at the 40-day moving average of $106.77, while initial resistance stands at $108.05, which is backed by the 10-day moving average.