Corn is flat to 1 cent higher at mid-morning
- Corn futures began the week with a firm tone, but have pulled back amid weakness in wheat. Corn ended lower on Friday after USDA trimmed its average yield estimate by 2.2 bushels per acre to 178.5 bushels and trimmed production to 15.8 billion bushels, both just slightly above the average trade estimate. Corn was dragged down by steep losses for soybeans after a somewhat more negative report for the commodity.
- USDA said 1.525 million metric tons (MMT) of corn was inspected for export in the week ended Sept. 10, down from 1.675 MMT the previous week and within the 1.25 MMT to 1.775 MMT range found in a Reuters survey of analysts.
- The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission on Friday showed managed money trimmed back 5,891 contracts from their previously record net long in corn futures and options. That net long remains at a huge 425,171 contracts on September 8.
- Surging oil and fuel prices may be lending support to grain and soy complex futures. WTI crude jumped 3.9% and Brent rose more than 4%, to trade above $109 a barrel after Saudi Arabia at the end of last week closed its crucial East-West pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz following drone strikes. The 750-mile pipeline, capable of transporting up to 7 million barrels a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu has been a crucial workaround for the kingdom’s exports following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- December corn is trading within Friday’s range. Support comes in at Friday’s low of $5.23 1/4 while bulls are looking to overcome resistance at $5.40 then $5.44 3/4 on strength.
Soybeans are 7 to 10 cents higher, while meal is around $5 higher. Soyoil futures are around 75 points higher.
- Soybeans have wiped out Thursday’s gains after reaching a fresh near-term high in overnight trade as traders await USDA.
- President Donald Trump on Truth Social said that Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian energy targets and that Moscow had agreed to do likewise. Trump argues that surging global diesel prices are “mostly caused” by the Russia-Ukraine war rather than the U.S. war with Iran.
- The National Weather Service today said a very moist airmass moves into the heartland today, which will set the stage for widespread showers and thunderstorms beginning this morning. Numerous instances of flash flooding and scattered severe weather is a concern a later today over portions of the central Plains as multiple rounds of thunderstorms develop in this very moist and unstable environment
- USDA said 674,000 MT of soybeans were inspected for export last week, up from 465,000 the previous week and above the top end of forecasts.
- The COT report saw net speculative longs in soybean futures hit a record 266,031 contracts as of Sept. 8, up 24,848 from the previous week.
- November soybeans are back above $13.00 resistance. Additional resistance lies at $13.10 on continued strength. Bulls are looking to hold support at $12.92 then $12.85 on a reversal back lower.
Winter wheat futures are 4 to 7 cents lower.
- Winter wheat futures turned lower, triggering technical selling, after Trump’s remarks on the Russia-Ukraine war. Traders remain sensitive to headlines around the status of the conflict as they gauge the potential for a reopening of exports from the Black Sea region.
- USDA said 457,000 MT of wheat were inspected for export last week, up from 431,000 MT the previous week and within the range of estimates.
- December SRW wheat failed to hold support at the 20-day moving average at $7.29 1/2. Further support is seen at $7.09 on persistent selling. Resistance stands at $7.38 1/2 on a push higher.
Live cattle and feeders are higher at midsession.
- Cattle futures are posting followthrough gains after a strong performance in last week’s holiday-shortened trading.
- USDA reported higher boxed beef prices on Monday morning, with Choice up $2.71 to $378.65, while Select rose $1.08 to $354.21.
- October live cattle traded above 40-day moving average at $219.60 to hit a nearly one-month high. Resistance is seen at $221.65, which marks a 50% retracement of the 52-week range. Support is back at the 40-day average, with further support at $217.50.
Hog futures are lower at midmorning.
- October lean hogs are lower amid fundamental and technical pressure.
- The CME lean hog index is down 71 cents at $87.23 as of Sept. 11.
- The pork cutout value rose 25 cents Monday morning to $90.05, with ribs up $5.60 and picnics up $5.48, while bellies fell $11.36.
- October lean hogs gapped lower at the open. Support is seen at $79.05, with resistance at Friday’s low of $81.475.