Cotton producers: Extend 2024-crop sales... December cotton futures have rallied for six straight days, hitting our sales target of 69.00 cents. We advise cotton hedgers and cash-only marketers to sell another 40% of 2024-crop production to get to 75% sold in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional sales on further price strength as the old-crop marketing year ends on July 31.
Corn is around 4 cents higher at mid-morning.
- Corn futures are posting corrective gains this morning, though volume has been fairly light.
- Agribusiness consultancy firm Datagro raised their corn crop estimated to 134 MMT, up 1% from their prior estimate.
- South Africa’s corn crop is proving to be larger than expected, as the government’s Crop Estimates Committee has raised the 2025 harvest to 14.783 MMT, up from 12.85 MMT previously. South Africa exports a significant portion of their corn crop
- December corn futures are posting solid gains but encountered stiff resistance at $4.30. Additional selling pressure has bears looking to break below support at $4.21.
Soybeans are 4 to 7 cents higher with new-crop leading the charge higher, while soymeal is around steady. Soyoil is about 20 points lower.
- Soybeans are posting modest corrective gains as positioning drives trade ahead of Monday’s reports.
- USDA confirmed the sale of 119,746 MT of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2025-26 marketing year.
- Brazilian agriculture consultancy Datagro hiked it’s forecast for soybean production to 173.5 MMT, up 0.8% from its prior estimate.
- A bipartisan group of seven House lawmakers from Iowa, Minnesota and Ohio is urging the Senate Finance Committee to revise its Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z) language in the reconciliation package to match provisions passed by the House.
- November soybean futures encountered resistance at the psychological $10.25 mark. Additional strength would target 10-day moving average resistance at $10.34. Support comes in at $10.16 1/2 on a reversal lower.
SRW wheat futures are around 2 cents higher, HRW futures are near steady, while HRS futures are around 3 cents higher.
- Winter wheat futures saw strong gains overnight but have since underwent resurgent selling pressure, pulling prices off intraday highs.
- Argentine wheat planting is off to a rapid start, already 73% planted. That could lead to additional acres and a bump to 2025-26 production, providing competition to U.S. origin grain.
- Canadian wheat plantings came below expectations in this morning’s report from Statistics Canada. Spring wheat plantings totaled 18.8 million acres, down from a year ago and below expectations of 19.2 million acres. Meanwhile, durum plantings are up from a year ago at 6.5 million acres, above expectations of 6.3 million.
- September SRW futures found staunch resistance at $5.45 this morning, which remains bulls’ initial target. Support comes in at yesterday’s low of $5.36 1/4 on continued selling pressure.
Live cattle and feeders are solidly higher at midsession.
- Live cattle futures are pressing higher but continue to trade in a downtrend stemming from the early June highs.
- Beef margins have ticked higher and are now estimated to be in the black according to Hedgersedge, boosted by recent weakness in cash cattle and strength in cutout.
- Cash cattle trade got underway late Thursday, with prices reported in a wide range from as low as $222.00 in the Southern Plains to as high as $232.00 in the northern market.
- August live cattle are pressing higher and challenging technical resistance at $211.40, the 20-day moving average. Strength above that mark eyes this week’s high of $211.90. Support comes in at $209.70 on a reversal back lower.
Hog futures are under pressure at midmorning.
- Lean hog futures opened lower this morning following the bearish Hogs & Pigs Report yesterday but selling efforts have since stalled.
- The combination of slightly bigger-than-expected spring pig crop and revisions to market hog inventories from the previous two quarters pushed the June 1 hog herd up 0.3% from year-ago. Analysts expected a 0.4% contraction.
- The CME lean hog index is up another 48 cents to $111.89 as of June 25, a notably slower gain than the last couple days.
- Pork cutout slid $2.16 to $119.65 on Thursday, led by losses in ribs and hams, with movement slowing below 200.0 loads amid slowed purchases ahead of the Fourth of July.
- August lean hogs are trading at the lowest level since early June. Prices are struggling to break back above resistance at $109.25, the 20-day moving average. Support comes in at $108.25 on continued selling pressure.