Market Snapshot | Corn creeps higher as technical headwinds loom

Corn is mostly around 4 cents higher.

• Corn futures are modestly firmer, rebounding from earlier weakness amid short-covering.
• Weather conditions through the first half of July have been “nearly ideal” and the corn crop is “on its way to a record yield.” Therefore, crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his corn yield 2 bu. to 182 bu. per acre, increasing his corn production forecast to 15.79 billion bushels.
• USDA rated the corn crop as 74% “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor” as of July 13. On our Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500-point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop improved 1.4 points to 383.4, now 10 points above last year at this time. Click here for more details.
• Record safrinha corn yields are being reported in top producer Mato Grosso and other areas of central Brazil, while results are better than expected in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul. Therefore, Cordonnier raised his Brazilian corn production forecast 2 MMT to 134 MMT.
• September corn futures pushed above Monday’s high of $4.01 3/4, with near-term resistance extending from the 10-day moving average near $4.04 1/2 to the 20-day average at $4.10. Initial support lies at $3.93 3/4.

Soybeans are choppy, while meal futures are $2.00 lower. Soyoil is around 80 points higher.

• Soybeans are choppy amid conflicting price action in the soy product markets.
• Cordonnie raised his soybean yield 1 bu. to 52.5 bu. per acre, increasing his production forecast to 4.33 billion bushels.
• USDA rated the soybean crop as 70% “good” to “excellent” and 5% “poor” to “very poor” as of Sunday. On our CCI, the soybean crop improved 3.5 points to 367.2 and is now 3.0 points above year ago.
• The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) is expected to report its members crushed 185.2 million bu. of soybeans in June, according to a Reuters survey. That would be down 4% from May and the smallest figure in four months, but up 5.5% from last year and a record for the month. Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of June 30 were projected at 1.374 billion pounds.
• August soybean futures are trading within Monday’s lower range, with support at $9.99 1/4, while initial resistance stands at $10.01 3/4.

Wheat futures are mostly a penny to 5 cents higher, with HRW leading gains.

• Wheat futures are edging higher but are being limited by a notably firmer U.S. dollar.
• USDA rated the spring wheat crop as 54% “good” to “excellent” and 13% “poor” to “very poor.” On our CCI, the spring wheat rating rose 6.2 points to 357.7, though that’s still 26.3 points below year-ago.
• France’s ag ministry forecasts this year’s soft wheat production at 32.6 MMT, up 6.93 MMT (27%) from last year’s crop that was the lowest since the 1980s. Wheat production is expected to be 2.4% above the five-year average that included two poor crops.
• Russia’s IKAR consultancy trimmed its Russian wheat production forecast by 500,000 MT to 84 MMT due to lower yields in southern areas suffering from drought. Rostov, Russia’s top wheat producing region in 2024, may see the lowest wheat harvest since 2015 due to severe drought. IKAR also lowered its 2025-26 Russian wheat export forecast by 500,000 MT to 42 MMT.
• December SRW futures continue to find support at $5.57 1/4, while resistance stands at $5.64 1/2.

Live cattle and feeders are moderately to sharply higher at midsession.

• Nearby live cattle are recouping a portion of Monday’s decline.
• Cash cattle averaged $237.21 last week, up $7.78 from the previous week and the second highest price on record.
• Wholesale beef fell on Monday, with Choice down another $1.57 to $377.07, while Select fell $1.91 to $364.58. Movement declined to 95 loads.
• August live cattle futures are trading narrowly within Monday’s lower range, with resistance at the contract high of $223.30, while Monday’s low of $218.70 serves as initial support.

Deferred lean hog futures are weaker at midmorning.

• July lean hogs are firmer ahead of contract expiration at noon CT.
• The CME lean hog index is up 15 cents to $107.25 as of July 11. July lean hog futures, which expire at noon CT today and are settled against the cash index on July 17.
• China’s pork production in the second quarter rose 1.4% from last year to 14.18 MMT, boosted by higher slaughter weights and efficiency. A total of 366.19 million hogs were slaughtered in the first half of 2025, up 0.6% from a year earlier, which resulted in a 1.3% increase in pork product to 30.2 MMT. China’s pig herd rose to 424.47 million head at the end of the second quarter, up from 417.31 million in the first quarter.
• August lean hogs are trading within Monday’s lower range, with support at $102.33, while resistance remains at $104.50.