Market Snapshot | Conflict in the Middle East threatens Brazilian beef exports

March 4, 2026

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Corn is 4 to 5 cents lower at midmorning.

  • Corn futures are facing technical selling in tandem with SRW wheat.
  • USDA reported 125,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations during 2025-26.
  • President Trump on Tuesday said the U.S. will ensure safe passage of oil from the Middle East to head off a potential energy crisis caused by the war in the region. “The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation will offer insurance to help ensure the flow of energy and other commercial trade in the Gulf, and the U.S. Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary,” said a Bloomberg report.
  • World Weather Inc. reports safrinha corn areas in Brazil will need follow-up rain soon. Significant rain is needed to improve soil moisture enough to favorably support crop development.
  • May corn futures are trading mostly between the 200-day moving average of $.47 3/4 and the 20-day moving average, trading at $4.40 1/2.

Soybeans are 8 to 9 cents lower, while soymeal is around $2.80 lower. Soyoil is around 25 points higher.

  • Old-crop soybean futures are mostly firmer amid modest bull-spreading.
  • China’s legislature has signaled a desire for steady relations with the U.S. as the countries prepare for a planned summit between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President Trump in coming weeks, according to a Bloomberg report. Lou Qinjian, spokesman for the National People’s Congress, told reporters today that “head of state diplomacy” remains the “irreplaceable” driver of bilateral ties.
  • Much of Argentina outside of some southern areas will benefit from multiple rounds of rain through this weekend, resulting in notable improvements in crop and soil conditions while fieldwork is slowed, according to World Weather.
  • May soybeans are trading inside Tuesday’s range, limited by resistance at this week’s high of $11.85, while the 10-day moving average, trading at $11.61 1/2, continues to serve up initial support.

Wheat futures are mostly 6 to 9 cents lower.

  • SRW wheat futures continue to face corrective selling after carving a fresh near-term high on Monday, though solid technical support and a weaker dollar are curbing seller interest.
  • There are some concerns for lower yields in India due to warm and dry biased conditions during reproduction and there is still some concern about excessive moisture and possible flooding in western Russia, notes World Weather.
  • Rain is needed in U.S. HRW wheat areas and in Canada’s Prairies, although there is plenty of time for increased moisture to fall, before the growing season gets under way in Canada. Some rain will fall in HRW areas this week and into the weekend, with western areas seeing the lightest amounts.
  • May SRW futures are now facing resistance at the 10-day moving average, trading at $5.74 1/2, which is backed by this week’s high of $6.03 3/4. Support lies at the 200- and 20-day moving averages of $5.60 1/2 and $5.59 1/2.

Live cattle and feeders are posting strong gains at midsession.

  • Nearby futures are posting notable corrective gains, with lingering concerns that Brazilian beef exports will be limited due to the conflict in the Middle East.
  • Reports of weaker cash trade are hitting the airwaves, with futures weakness likely pressuring cash trade. Cash trade remains light so far this week, with only a few cattle trading at sharply lower levels in the southern Plains.
  • Brazilian beef exporters are concerned about a potentially prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which is the destination of about 10% of Brazil’s beef shipments, according to the head of beef exporters’ group Abiec.
  • Choice boxed beef surged $6.71 on Tuesday to $388.05, while Select rose 37 cents to $378.58. Movement remained light at only 90 loads.
  • April cattle futures gapped higher at the open, though resistance at the 20-day moving average, currently trading at $21.65 is curbing momentum. Initial support lies at the intraday low of $234.80

Hog futures are notably higher at midsession.

  • Lean hog futures are posting solid gains, but continue to hold within the recent pattern of sideways consolidation.
  • The CME lean hog index is up 15 cents to $89.84 as of March 2.
  • The pork cutout value was unchanged on Tuesday at $98.5, with gains in primal ribs, picnics and bellies offsetting losses in butts, hams and loins. Movement was improved to 325 loads.
  • April lean hogs continue to find support at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $95.20 to $94.71. Resistance stems from the Feb. 4 high of $99.80.