Market Snapshot | August 18, 2022

Corn futures are 6 to 8 cents higher at midsession.

• Corn futures erased overnight declines and turned higher with some support from stronger-than-expected USDA export numbers. Midwest weather remains largely bearish.
• Midwest weather will feature “a combination of mostly favorable soil moisture, timely rainfall and milder than usual temperatures,” World Weather said today. “There are pockets of dryness and some areas of crop stress, but the environment is not very threatening… and as long as temperatures are mild deteriorating conditions will occur only gradually.”
• Net U.S. corn sales during the week ended Aug. 11 totaled 99,300 MT for the 2021-22 marketing year, down 48% from the previous week and down 8% from the average for the previous four weeks. For 2022-23, net sales totaled 750,000 MT, primarily for “unknown destinations” (286,000 MT), Mexico (216,400 MT) and China (136,500 MT). New-crop sales topped trade expectations ranging from 300,000 to 700,000 MT.
• Another ship carrying corn left Ukraine’s Chornomorsk port, Turkey’s defense ministry said today, bringing the total number of vessels to leave Ukraine’s Black Sea ports to 25. An additional four vessels are expected to arrive at Ukrainian ports today to be loaded with grain.
• The International Grains Council (IGC) cut its forecast for 2022-23 global corn output on diminished prospects in the European Union and the U.S. In its monthly update, the UGC downwardly revised its 2022-23 world corn crop outlook by 10 MMT to 1.179 billion MT.
• December corn overnight fell as low as $6.04 but bounced back during the U.S. session to reach $6.19 3/4, topping Wednesday’s high.

Soybean futures are 14 to 18 cents higher and soymeal futures are more than $8 higher, while soyoil is over 100 points lower.

• Soybeans bounced back from overnight weakness as stronger-than-expected weekly USDA export data temporarily overshadowed bearish weather.
• USDA reported net weekly soybean sales for 2021-22 totaling 96,900 MT, primarily for China (80,800 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations).
• For 2022-23, net sales of 1.303 MMT were primarily for China (779,000 MT) and unknown destinations (273,000 MT) up sharply from the previous week’s 477,200 MT and above expectations from 300,000 to 650,000 MT. New-crop sales were the largest for either 2021-22 or 2022-23 since the end of March.
• November soybeans overnight fell as low as $13.76 1/2, just above this week’s low, before rebounding and climbing to $14.06.

Wheat futures are sharply lower, led by declines of around 30 cents HRW contracts.

• Winter wheat futures fell to 10-month lows as charts turned increasingly bearish and accelerating shipments from Ukraine eased supply concerns. Soft export demand fueled bearishness.
• USDA reported net weekly U.S. wheat sales totaling 207,200 MT for 2022-23, down 42% from the previous week, down 46% from the prior four-week average and a marketing-year low. Sales were expected to range from 250,000 to 650,000 MT.
• Taiwan purchased 34,025 MT of U.S. milling wheat.
• IGC raised its forecast for wheat production in 2022-23 season by 8 MMT to 778 MMT.
• September SRW wheat extended overnight declines and dropped to $7.25 3/4, the contract’s lowest intraday price since mid-October. September HRW wheat fell to the lowest price since mid-February.

Live cattle futures are modestly lower at midmorning, while feeders cattle are posting sharper losses.

• Live cattle futures are lower in a corrective setback from gains the two previous sessions. Declines are being limited by expectations for stronger cash and tighter animal supplies.
• Feeder cattle are under pressure as corn turned higher.
• Light cash cattle trade started at $141 in Texas and $150 in the northern market Wednesday. The wide variance in the two markets continues and makes it difficult to gauge the final price for the week. But those initial levels suggest prices will rise roughly $1 from last week’s average of $144.39.
• Choice beef cutout values fell $1.10 Wednesday to $264.34, but movement was strong at 145 loads.
• USDA reported net weekly beef export sales of 18,900 MT for 2022, up 29% from the previous week and unchanged from the prior four-week average. 
• October live cattle are trading within Wednesday’s range, with yesterday’s high at $146.25 marking initial resistance. A push above that level may have bulls targeting the contract high of $147.50 posted April 22.

Hog futures are sharply lower.

• Lean hog futures resumed the early week selloff on eroding technicals, signs of a peak in cash benchmarks and weaker demand readings.
• The CME lean hog index is down 44 cents to $120.62, the fifth drop in the past six sessions.
• Pork cutout values fell $2.68 Wednesday to a five-week low at $118.47, led by a slide of more than $12 in bellies. Movement slowed to 273 loads.
• USDA reported net weekly pork export sales at 13,600 MT for 2022, down 37% from the previous week and down 43% from the prior four-week average.
• China imported 120,000 MT of pork in July, unchanged from June but down 65.1% from last year. Through the first eight months of this year, China imported 930,000 MT of pork, also down 65.1% from the same period last year.
• October lean hogs fell as low as $95.40, the contract’s lowest intraday price since Aug. 4.