Market Snapshot | April 16, 2024

Corn futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents lower at midmorning.

• Corn futures are extending Monday’s losses, with spillover weakness stemming from the soy complex.
• USDA reported as of April 14, corn planting was 6% complete, slightly ahead of the five-year average of 5%.
• South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier cut his Argentine corn production estimate by 3 MMT to 50 MMT, noting impacts from corn stunt disease. Cordonnier kept his Brazilian corn estimate unchanged at 112 MMT.
• May corn futures are consolidating between support at $4.27 1/2 and the 10- and 40-day moving averages, which have converged at $4.32 1/2.

Soybean futures are mostly 7 to 8 cents lower, while soymeal is $1.50 to $2.00 lower. May soyoil is about 40 points lower.

• Nearby soybeans fell to the lowest intraday level in over a month.
• USDA estimated soybean plantings were 3% complete as of Sunday, ahead of the five-year average of 1%.
• Cordonnier raised his Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 2 MMT to 147 MMT, due to the crop in Rio Grande do Sul finishing much better than expected. Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged at 51 MMT.
• May soybeans continue to face strong resistance at the 10-day moving average at $11.70 3/4. With the drop below $11.50 1/2, support is at $11.42 3/4.

Winter wheat futures are mostly 4 to 7 cents lower, while HRS futures are fractionally to a penny lower.

• Winter wheat markets are facing followthrough selling, with SRW wheat leading to the downside.
• USDA rated 55% of the winter wheat crop as “good” to “excellent,” down one percentage point from the previous week. When USDA’s weekly crop condition ratings are plugged into the Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop dropped 8.3 points to 337.0, while the SRW crop improved 8.3 points to 382.1. Click here for details.
• USDA estimated spring wheat plantings were 7% complete as of Sunday, ahead of the five-year average of 6%.
• Ukraine’s grain production is expected to fall to about 52 MMT this year, down 6 MMT (10.3%) from year-ago, mostly due to reduced plantings, according to the first official forecast from the ag ministry.
• May SRW wheat is facing resistance at the 20-, 40- and 10-day moving averages of $5.53 1/2, $5.55 and $5.56 1/2, respectively. Support lies at $5.38 3/4.

Live cattle and feeders are marking solid gains at midsession.  

• Nearby live cattle are posting followthrough gains, though overhead technicals continue to limit the upside.
• Cash cattle prices averaged $183.84 last week, down $1.89 from the previous week. After posting an all-time high the week ended March 22, cash cattle prices have fallen for three straight weeks, with a $5.72 decline during that period.
• Choice boxed beef values firmed 31 cents Monday to $300.88, while Select tumbled $4.20 to $291.34, widening the Choice/Select spread to $9.54. Movement was light at only 90 loads for the day.
• June live cattle have pushed above the 10-day moving average near $173.875. Resistance is now at $175.53, backed by the 100-day moving average of $176.30. Initial support lies at $172.23.

Lean hog futures are posting moderate- to strong losses at midsession.

• Hog futures are rebounding from last week’s heavy losses.
• The CME lean hog index is up another 17 cents to $90.73 as of April 12, though the pace of gain slowed notably from recent days.
• The pork cutout value rose $2.40 to $103.60, led higher by a $19-gain in primal bellies. Movement totaled 244.3 loads.
• China produced 15.83 MMT of pork during the first quarter of 2024, down 0.4% from the same period last year. That was the first annual decline in quarterly production since the second quarter of 2020.
• June lean hogs have pushed above the 20-day moving average near $103.42, which is now support. Resistance is at the 10-day average near $105.42.