Hogs
Price action: October lean hog futures fell $1.425 to $82.125, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw more technical selling pressure today. Sharply lower cattle futures prices today also spilled over into more selling in hog futures. The cash hog market is still trending down, which also favors the bearish camp of futures traders. The latest CME lean hog index down 5 cents to $95.89. Friday’s projected CME index price is down another 5 cents at $95.84. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $97.05. The USDA’s noon pork report today showed cutout value was up $0.43 at $100.58, led by gains in loins and bellies. Movement at midday was 172.62 loads.
USDA this morning reported U.S. pork export sales totaled 36,300 MT for 2026, up 33% from the previous week and 29% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: October lean hog futures are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart but now just barely. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close October futures prices above solid chart resistance at $87.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $79.775. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $83.175 and then at this week’s high of $84.40. First support is seen at the August low of $81.325 and then at $79.775.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You currently have all risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.
Cattle
Price action: October live cattle fell $3.75 to $220.05, near the daily low and hit a three-week low. September feeder cattle lost $2.15 to $337.20, near mid-range and hit a three-week low.
Fundamental analysis: October live cattle and September feeder futures today saw more technical selling pressure as the charts have turned significantly more bearish this week. Lower cash cattle trading so far this week also pressured futures.
USDA at midday today reported a bit more active cash cattle taking place so far this week, with steers averaging $231.44 and heifers averaging $231.47. The agency on Monday reported cash trading last week took place at an average price of $235.21. The week prior’s average cash trading price was $233.06. The noon report today showed higher boxed beef prices, with Choice grade up $4.21 at $376.49 and Select grade up $1.34 at $351.15. Movement at midday was 60 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $25.34.
USDA reported U.S. beef export sales of 14,400 MT for 2026, down 27% from the previous week, but up 10% from the four-week average.
In the southern Plains states, livestock heat stress will prevail during much of the next two weeks, making weight gains a challenge.
Technical analysis: The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close October futures above resistance at the August high of $230.325. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $216.95. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $223.50 and then at Wednesday’s high of $226.40. First support is seen at $219.00 and then at $218.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close September futures prices above technical resistance at the August high of $349.85. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the July low of $330.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $338.575 and then at Wednesday’s high of $345.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $333.95 and then at $330.70.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.