Hogs
Price action: June lean hog futures rose $0.675 to $101.725, nearer the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw a pause and some tepid short covering today after prices last Friday hit a four-month low.
The latest CME lean hog index is down 15 cents at $90.51. Tuesday’s projected cash index price is down another 14 cents at $90.37. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $69.65. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up $1.86 at $191.06, led by gains in loins, picnics and bellies. Movement at midday was 134.05 loads.
Technical analysis: June lean hog futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close June futures prices above solid chart resistance at the April high of $107.85. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $100.00. First resistance is seen at $102.65 and then at this week’s high of $103.80. First support is seen at last week’s low of $100.175 and then at $99.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through April in the cash market. You should also have corn-for-feed needs purchased through April. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Cattle
Price action: June live cattle fell $1.275 to $246.075, nearer the daily low. May feeder cattle fell $4.175 to $361.10, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets saw follow-through selling pressure that intensified late today, after solid losses late last week that did produce some near-term chart damage.
USDA at midday today reported average cash cattle trading last week was at $248.02. That’s down 36 cents from the week prior’s average cash trade at $248.38. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values solidly up. Choice-grade was up $2.00 at $383.06, while Select-grade was up $5.92 at $382.52. Movement at midday was light at 30 loads. The Choice-Select spread at midday today narrowed to plus $0.54.
Last Friday’s monthly USDA Cattle-on-Feed report showed U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market on feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on April 1. The inventory was 1 percent below April 1, 2025. The inventory included 7.26 million steers and steer calves, down slightly from the previous year. This group accounted for 63 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.32 million head, down 1 percent from 2025. Placements in feedlots during March totaled 1.71 million head, 7 percent below 2025.
Technical analysis: Cattle futures markets have seen price uptrends on the daily bar charts at least temporarily stall out. There are now early chart clues to begin to suggest market tops are in place. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close June futures above resistance at the contract high of $252.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $240.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $248.90 and then at $250.00. First support is seen at $245.00 and then at last week’s low of $243.025.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close May futures prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $377.575. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $350.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $367.45 and then at $370.00. First support is seen at $360.00 and then at last week’s low of $357.85.
What to do: Cover corn-for-feed needs through April in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through April. You have corn-for-feed needs covered through April as well. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.