Hogs
Price action: August lean hog futures sunk $1.80 to $106.10 and closed nearer session lows. That marked a $4.175 drop on the week.
5-day outlook: Hog futures ended the week on a bearish note, reflecting continued weakness in cash fundamentals. We remarked last week following the Hogs & Pigs Report that the market quickly reflected higher than expected supplies and the anticipation for greater supplies later in the year. This week’s action in both cash fundamentals and futures reinforced that bearish undertone as prices continued lower. Prices are now trending lower on the daily bar chart and show no signs of slowing down, though some corrective buying is possible over the week. Prices are likely to continue to trend lower next week as bears now hold full control of the technical advantage.
30-day outlook: The CME lean hog index looks to have put in a seasonal peak amid a bottoming in annual hog slaughter. The CME lean hog index is down another 77 cents to $110.22 as of July 1. The preliminary calculation puts the index down another 71 cents to $108.95 on Monday. Futures now trading below the cash market indicates traders believe a seasonal high is in place. It is historically usual for hog prices to put in a high this time of year, so that is not terribly unexpected. How quickly prices will come down ultimately comes down to demand.
90-day outlook: The upcoming July 9 loose deadline for trade deals has White House officials busy as they meet with various trade delegates from around the globe. Both sales and shipments are down from a year ago, which has done little to boost hog prices. Pork cutout has recently fallen under pressure in tandem with cash hog prices. Movement has been increasing as pork prices fall, a good sign for the market, but even higher pork demand has done little to stifle price weakness. Pork cutout fell another $1.25 to $109.50 at midsession today as losses in all cuts except picnics undercut prices. If the Trump administration is able to get some deals signed with agriculture at the forefront, it could help stifle seasonal weakness in the coming quarter.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle futures rose $1.60 to $214.05 and nearer the daily high. For the week, August cattle rose 75 cents. August feeder cattle futures gained 47 1/2 cents to $309.50 and nearer the session high. For the week, August feeders gained $1.60.
5-day forecast: This holiday-shortened trading week was a choppy one for cattle market traders, but the bulls are not too disappointed as futures prices have rebounded well off the late-June lows and today saw a technically bullish weekly high close in August live cattle futures. Live cattle futures should continue to be supported next week by the still-steep discounts futures have to the cash cattle market.
Cash cattle trade late this week saw steers trading at an average of $229.17, with heifers averaging $227.49, according to USDA. Last week’s cash cattle trade averaged $229.51. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef values lower, with Choice-grade down $4.09 to $390.77 while Select lost $1.32 to $378.99. Movement at midday was decent at 75 loads. The Choice-Select Spread is presently $11.78. USDA reported U.S. beef export sales totaling 11,400 MT for 2025, down 19% from the previous week and down 9% from the four-week average.
30-day outlook: Peak outdoor grilling season will begin to wane in the next few weeks, which may temper bullish cattle market traders. However, cattle slaughter levels continue to trail year-ago numbers by a wide margin, amid still historically low numbers of cattle in large feedlots. Feeder cattle markets may struggle a bit in the coming weeks on USDA’s announcement of resuming cattle imports from Mexico in early July after an abrupt closure on May 11.
90-day outlook: Good news for the cattle markets late this week saw the Labor Department today report U.S. non-farm payrolls topped expectations in June, rising 147,000, following an upwardly revised 114,000 rise in May and well above market expectations. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, from 4.2% in May and beat expectations for an increase to 4.3%. This signals broad labor market stability and a healthy U.S. economy, which helped push the major U.S. stock indexes to record highs today. That also bodes well for better consumer confidence and in turn better consumer demand for beef at the meat counter in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.