Hogs
Price action: October lean hog futures rose $0.225 to $78.90, near mid-range and hit another 15-month low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw tepid short covering today, following the recent steep price downdraft. Bulls are still on shaky technical ground. The near-term chart posture is firmly bearish. A weakening cash hog market is also negative for lean hog futures.
The latest CME lean hog index is down 79 cents to $85.81. Friday’s projected CME index price is down another 79 cents at $85.02. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $84.24. The USDA’s noon pork report today showed cutout value was up $1.93 at $88.28, led by butts and picnics. Movement at midday was 134.02 loads.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. pork export sales of 30,100 MT for 2026 were up 10 percent from the previous week, but down 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (12,300 MT, Japan (5,600 MT) and, South Korea (4,000 MT.
Technical analysis: October lean hog futures see the technical posture as firmly bearish. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close October futures prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of $81.475, which is the top of a downside price gap on the daily bar chart.. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $75.00. First resistance is seen at $80.00 and then at this week’s high of $81.375. First support is seen at today’s low of $78.275 and then at $77.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You currently have all risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.
Cattle
Price action: October live cattle fell $2.80 to $215.65, near the daily low. November feeder cattle lost $4.45 to $318.65, near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets today saw heavy profit-taking and weak long liquidation as the bulls are fading badly down the stretch this week. Lower boxed beef prices at noon also encouraged the sellers.
USDA at midday today reported cattle trading turning more active today, with steers averaging $222.17 and heifers averaging $223.00. The agency said cash cattle traded last week at higher money, averaging $222.82. The noon report today showed lower boxed beef prices, with Choice grade down $3.68 at $372.13 and Select grade down $2.30 at $352.27. Movement at midday was 71 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $19.86.
USDA’s weekly export sales report showed U.S. beef sales of 14,200 MT for 2026 were up 65 percent from the previous week and up 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for South Korea (6,100 MT) Mexico (2,000 MT) and Taiwan (1,400 MT).
Cattle traders are awaiting Friday afternoon’s monthly USDA cattle-on-feed report.
Technical analysis: Cattle futures saw price uptrends on the daily bar charts negated today. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close October futures above resistance at $225.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $209.575. First resistance is seen at $218.00 and then at today’s high of $220.225. First support is seen at $215.00 and then at $214.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close November futures prices above technical resistance at this week’s high of $333.325. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the August low of $304.15. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $325.50 and then at Wednesday’s high of $328.925. First support is seen at $318.00 and then at $315.00.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.