Hogs
Price action: August lean hog futures rose $0.60 to $99.575, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw more short covering and perceived bargain hunting following recent selling pressure. While near-term charts remain bearish, more gains in lean hog futures to end the trading week would begin to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place.
The latest CME lean hog index is up 14 cents at $91.65. Thursday’s projected cash index price is up 60 cents at $92.25. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $94.14. The noon report today showed pork cutout value down $0.44 at $100.15, led by losses ribs. Movement at midday was decent at 169.91 loads.
Technical analysis: August lean hog futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close June futures prices above solid chart resistance at $102.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of $93.675. First resistance is seen at $100.00 and then at $101.025. First support is seen at today’s low of $98.325 and then at $97.00.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle fell $1.80 to $237.85 and hit a nine-week low early on today. August feeder cattle lost $5.80 to $342.625, nearer the daily high after hitting a 10-week low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets today saw mild follow-through technical selling pressure today as both markets are still in downtrends on their daily bar charts. Speculative buyers are also becoming more anxious about the uncertainty of the New World Screwworm situation and its impact on U.S. consumer psychology as the parasite detections get closer to the U.S.
USDA at midday today reported very light cash cattle trading, with steers averaging $254.67 and heifers $254.86. Last week’s average cash trading price was $256.86-- down $3.63 from the prior week’s average. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values mixed. Choice-grade was up $1.94 at $396.01, while Select-grade lost $0.39 to $384.42. Movement at midday was 62 loads. The Choice-Select spread at midday today was plus $11.59.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls still see fledgling price downtrends in place on their daily bar charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at the contract high of $251.65. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $230.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $243.875 and then at $245.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $235.375 and then at $234.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at $356.525. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the March low of $341.30. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $350.35 and then at this week’s high of $353.75. First support is seen at $344.725 and then at today’s low of $340.80.