Hogs
Price action: December lean hog futures fell $0.35 to $68.025, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw some more technical selling pressure today. Overall, charts are still bearish, highlighted by a downtrend that remains in place on the daily bar chart. Cash hog market and CME cash index prices continue to trend lower.
The latest CME lean hog index is down $1.10 at $76.51. Wednesday’s projected CME index price is down $0.57 at $75.94. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $71.89. The USDA noon pork report today showed cutout value was up $0.08 at $85.05, led by gains in ribs and bellies. Movement at midday was 163.02 loads.
Technical analysis: December lean hog futures see the technical posture as overall bearish. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close December futures prices above solid chart resistance at $72.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $65.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $69.00 and then at $70.00. First support is seen at the contract low of $67.325 and then at $66.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You currently have all risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You are now hand to mouth for corn-for-feed and soymeal for feed needs. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.
Cattle
Price action: December live cattle fell $0.225 to $226.375, near mid-range but poked to a two-month high early on. November feeder cattle lost $0.075 to $341.025, near mid-range and poked to a three-month high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets saw corrective price pullbacks and some profit taking again today.
USDA has confirmed the first Texas cattle screwworm case since July. The Pecos County, Texas, detection brings total cases to 53, with three still active.
USDA today reported not cash cattle so far this week. The agency on Monday said cash cattle trading last week averaged $220.14 up 34 cents from the week-prior average of $219.80. The noon report today showed gains in boxed beef prices, with Choice grade up $0.98 at $376.54 and Select grade up $1.55 at $355.68. Movement at midday was 68 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $20.86.
Technical analysis: December live cattle and November feeders bulls have the near-term technical advantage and are seeing prices trending up on their daily charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close December futures above resistance at the August high of $229.425. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $218.875. First resistance is seen today’s high of $227.60 and then at $228.425. First support is seen at $225.00 and then at last Friday’s low of $223.30.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close November futures prices above technical resistance at $350.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $325.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $342.50 and then at $344.00. First support is seen at $337.50 and then at $335.00.
What to do: You are now hand to mouth on allcorn-for-feed and soymeal needs. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value levels present themselves.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You are now hand to mouth for corn-for-feed and soymeal for feed needs. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.