Hogs
Price action: August lean hog futures fell $0.10 to $96.60, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market today saw a pause and very mild technical selling. Decent price gains Friday and a technically bullish weekly high close would negate the price downtrend to suggest a market bottom is in place.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. pork export sales totaled 26,200 MT for 2026 during the week ended June 18, up 63% from the previous week but down 6% from the four-week average.
Hog traders are awaiting this afternoon’s quarterly USDA hogs and pigs report. The size of the U.S. hog herd was slightly larger on June 1 than a year earlier, according to a Reuters survey. All hogs as of June 1 is expected to be 100.9% of the herd seen one year ago at the same time. Kept for breeding is seen at 99.3% from June 1, 2025. Kept for market numbers are seen at 101.1% from a year ago. The March-May pig crop is seen at 101.2% from June 1 of 2025.
The latest CME lean hog index is up 38 cents at $91.85. USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service website as of midday had not updated today’s fresh pork product data.
Technical analysis: August lean hog futures bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close June futures prices above solid chart resistance at $100.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of $93.675. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $98.35 and then at $100.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $96.10 and then at $95.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle rose $0.70 to $247.225, near mid-range. August feeder cattle gained $0.375 to $373.30, nearer the daily low and hit a six-week high early on.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets today saw mild technical buying amid ongoing concerns about reduced beef supplies coming out of Texas due to the NWS detections in the state.
The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is now reporting 20 total New World screwworm detected cases in the U.S. and all still in Texas and New Mexico, with the newest one in Texas. There are 17 active cases, all in Texas.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales totaled 21,300 MT for 2026 during the week ended June 18, up 88% from the previous week and from the four-week average.
High heat and humidity across all of the Midwest this weekend and next week will stress livestock. Cooling will return to the northern and eastern Midwest in the second week of July.
USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service website as of midday had not updated today’s boxed beef or cash cattle trade data.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures see price uptrends in place on their daily bar charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at the contract high of $251.65. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $233.975. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $250.00 and then at $251.65. First support is seen at this week’s low of $245.475 and then at $243.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $379.45. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $355.00. First resistance is seen at $375.00 and then at today’s high of $377.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $371.05 and then at this week’s low of $367.125.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.