Hogs
Price action: June lean hog futures rose $0.375 to $96.125, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market paused today as bulls work to stop the bleeding.The near-term technical posture for June hogs remains firmly bearish as prices are in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart.
The latest CME lean hog index is down 19 cents at $90.88. Tuesday’s projected cash index price was not available. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $93.46. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up $3.39 at $99.65, led by gains in bellies, picnics and hams. Movement at midday was 163.75 loads.
Technical analysis: June lean hog futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a steep downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close June futures prices above solid chart resistance at $100.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November 2025 low of $93.10. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $96.425 and then at $98.225. First support is seen at last week’s low of $94.775 and then at $93.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal and corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through May. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Cattle
Price action: June live cattle fell $1.075 to $248.225, near the daily low. August feeder cattle fell $0.40 to $349.50, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The feeder cattle futures market bulls are working to stop the bleeding after the recent steep price downdraft that drove prices to a two-month low last week. Live cattle futures today saw some technical selling.
USDA at midday today reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $258.77, down $4.08 from the week prior’s record high of $262.85.The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values higher. Choice-grade was up $1.98 at $392.25, while Select-grade gained $4.22 to $389.22. Movement at midday was light at 28 loads. The Choice-Select spread at midday today was plus $3.03.
In the Northern Plains, temperatures in the western half of the region will be extreme for this time of year today through Thursday, which will stress both crops and livestock.
Technical analysis: Live cattle futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close June futures above resistance at the contract high of $256.625. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the late-April low of $240.925. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $251.125 and then at $253.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $247.475 and then at $245.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at last week’s high of $366.125. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $340.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $353.375 and then at $356.625. First support is seen at today’s low of $348.225 and then at last week’s low of $344.275.
What to do: Cover corn-for-feed and soymeal needs through May in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn and soymeal for feed needs covered in the cash market through May.Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.