Hogs
Price action: December lean hog futures rose $0.30 to $55.45, nearer the daily low and for the week up $1.925.
5-day outlook: December lean hog futures saw very modest short covering and perceived bargain buying from the speculators to end the trading week. Futures prices remain trapped in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The CME cash hog index and cash hog prices also continue to trend down.
The latest CME lean hog index is down $1.00 to $58.78. Monday’s projected CME index price is down another $1.05 at $57.73. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $41.24. The USDA noon pork report today showed cutout value was up $3.17 at $72.31, led by gains in all cuts but loins. Movement at midday was light at 112.07 loads.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. pork export sales totaled 39,500 MT for 2026 during the week ended Nov. 5. Net sales rose 6% from the previous week and 3% from the four-week average.
30-day outlook: Nearby lean hog futures this month have plunged to a six-year low as bearish technicals and wholesale pork fundamentals continue to support the speculator bears. However, improving packer margins are giving the hog bulls some hope even as wholesale pork values have been under pressure. Futures traders are watching for signs of stronger holiday demand for pork and any shifts in export interest, which could help sustain the modest price recovery.
90-day outlook: Feed prices will be a key consideration for hog producers into winter. Overall, the livestock complex appears to be searching for direction after a volatile stretch, with cattle drawing more attention from tight supplies while hogs consolidate near recent lows. There remains producer caution around longer-term profitability and demand. Tepid export demand for U.S. pork, particularly from China and Mexico, continue to limit the prospects of a solid price recovery in lean hog futures in the coming months.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You currently have all risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You are covered through the end of December for corn-for-feed and covered through November for soymeal for feed needs. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.
Cattle
Price action: December live cattle futures rose $1.75 to $220.65, nearer the daily high and for the week up $6.60. January feeder cattle futures gained $3.675 to $335.35, nearer the daily high, hit a two-week high and for the week up $16.975.
5-day outlook: The cattle futures markets bulls had a good week, including producing technically bullish weekly high closes today, which suggest follow-through chart-based buying early next week. The cattle futures market bulls today overlooked light, lower cash cattle trade late this week. USDA at midday reported very light cash cattle trading so far this week at $212.27. The agency reported average cash cattle trading last week at $215.43. The noon report today showed weaker boxed beef prices, with Choice grade down $1.75 at $355.84 and Select grade down $0.79 at $347.92. Movement at midday was very light at 28 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $7.92.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. beef export sales totaled 9,600 for 2026 during the week ended Nov. 5. Net sales were down 13% from the previous week and 37% from the four-week average.
The monthly USDA cattle-on-feed report comes out next Friday afternoon.
30-day outlook: December live cattle futures are now trading at around an $8 premium to the latest cash market trade, suggesting futures traders expect cash cattle price strength in the coming weeks. Steady, solid demand for beef at the meat counter and a recovery in the U.S. stock market this week support the notion of steady-to-higher cash cattle prices in the coming weeks. Recent, mostly upbeat U.S. economic data suggests consumer confidence is still solid.
90-day outlook: Two processor announcements offer longer-term perspective. National Beef is developing a USA born, raised and finished program with U.S. Premium Beef suppliers, while Tyson is working with Allied Beef to restore a second shift at its Amarillo plant. Packers continue managing kill levels carefully to keep boxed beef prices balanced, while the New World screwworm threat has intensified in the Southwest.
What to do: You are covered through the end of December for corn-for-feed, and are hand to mouth for soymeal for feed needs. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You are covered through the end of December for corn-for-feed and covered through November for soymeal for feed needs. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.