Hogs
Price action: December lean hog futures rose $0.35 to $66.925, near mid-range and for the week down 90 cents.
5-day outlook: The hog futures market saw tepid short covering today after hitting a contract low in December futures on Thursday. Technicals remain firmly bearish. Futures prices remain trapped in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The CME cash hog index and cash hog prices continue to trend down, also.
The latest CME lean hog index is down 66 cents to $75.09. Monday’s projected CME index price is down another 90 cents at $74.19. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $70.60. The USDA noon pork report today showed cutout value was up $5.12 at $82.67, led by gains in all cuts. Movement at midday was 180.60 loads.
USDA this morning reported U.S. pork export sales of 36,300 MT for 2026 were up 35 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (15,400 MT), South Korea (8,500 MT) and Japan (3,800 MT. Exports of 32,200 MT were down 2 percent from the previous week, but up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (15,700 MT), Japan (4,300 MT) and China (3,300 MT).
30-day outlook: Fundamental and technical headwinds are keeping lean hog futures bears in the driver’s seat. The primary pressure is weak demand, as cutout continues to linger around multiyear lows. Heavy fund short positions and ongoing technical selling have reinforced the decline, while cash hog values remain under pressure. Although hog supplies are not burdensome, soft domestic demand continues to outweigh supply-side support and keeps the market on the defensive.
90-day outlook: Pork cutout values in October have fallen to the lowest levels since early 2023 on soft wholesale pork demand. Ample frozen U.S. pork stocks and cheaper alternative proteins continue to overshadow pork at the meat counter. Heavier carcass weights have offset much of the year-over year decline in hog inventories. A sustained recovery in cash hogs and futures depends on better evidence that smaller supplies are tightening pork production. Upcoming holiday demand for hams from grocers may be supportive for lean hog futures.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You currently have all risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed needs covered through the end of December, and are hand to mouth for soymeal for feed needs. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.
Cattle
Price action: December live cattle futures rose $1.10 to $228.35, near the session high, hit a nine-week high and for the week up $1.30. November feeder cattle futures lost $0.05 to $341.90, nearer the session low, hit a three-month high early on and for the week down a nickel.
5-day outlook: The live cattle futures market saw technical buying to end the trading week, including a technically bullish weekly high close that sets the market up for some follow-through buying early next week. Feeder futures paused today. Near-term price uptrends are firmly in place on the daily bar charts. Firmer cash cattle trade late this week also supported buying interest in live cattle futures.
USDA at midday today reported moderately active cash cattle trading late this week, with steers averaging $222.37 and heifers $220.91. The agency reported average cash cattle trading last week at $220.14. The noon report today showed mixed boxed beef prices, with Choice grade down $0.79 at $373.19 and Select grade up $0.41 at $353.03. Movement at midday was good at 103 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $20.16.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 19,800 MT for 2026 were up 52 percent from the previous week and 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 12,900 MT were up 8 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Fluctuating temperatures are expected to occur across much of the Plains states in the coming days. Some livestock stress may occur due to erratic swings in temperature, particularly in Montana, where temperatures will shift from the low 20s to mid-70s today into Saturday.
30-day outlook: The October WASDE’s surprise increase in the U.S. corn production forecast sent corn prices sharply lower, improving feedlot margins and lifting feeder cattle to multi-month highs this week. Live cattle followed, supported by expectations for tighter fed supplies into 2027. However, rising beef imports—up roughly 15% year-over-year amid temporary tariff relief—are capping upside, while futures trading at a premium to the cash market and technical resistance have limited further gains.
90-day outlook: Overall supply and demand fundamentals remain supportive for cattle futures but the market is sensitive to cash trade, corn prices and import developments. Cattle futures markets have been supported by tighter supplies of market-ready animals and steady packer demand. Boxed beef values have been supported by retailers stocking up ahead of seasonal promotions. Limited placements in recent months and improved pasture conditions have slowed the flow of cattle into feedyards.
What to do: You are now hand to mouth on all corn-for-feed and soymeal needs. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value levels present themselves.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You are covered through the end of December for corn-for-feed, and are hand to mouth for soymeal for feed needs. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.