Hogs
Price action: October lean hog futures fell $1.625 to $81.525, near the daily low for the week down 77 1/2 cents.
5-day outlook: The hog futures market saw more profit-taking from the shorter-term spec traders today, to produce a technically bearish weekly low close that suggests some follow-through, chart based selling pressure early next week.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. pork export sales totaled 27,400 MT for 2026 during the week ended Sept. 3, down 22% from the previous week and 20% from the four-week average.
The USDA noon pork showed cutout value was up $0.30 at $92.11, led by gains in bellies. Movement at midday was 140.62 loads. The latest CME lean hog index is down 57 cents to $88.22. Monday’s projected CME index price is down 85 cents at $87.94. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $87.72.
30-day outlook: Cash hogs and the CME lean hog index remain firmer than futures, which suggests traders are not bullish about the hog and pork markets heading into autumn. However, lighter hog weights hint supplies are tightening after packers pulled animals forward. Still, slaughter levels remain large. Lasting strength needs smaller kills and steady strength in cutout, not just one-day belly spikes.
90-day outlook: Bullish hog traders can argue that historically elevated retail beef prices at the mean better substitution demand for pork—especially with retail gasoline prices rising above $4.00 a gallon and the Federal Reserve poised to raise U.S. interest rates next week, both of which could sap consumer confidence and prompt better demand for more economical pork cuts at the meat counter.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You currently have all risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.
Cattle
Price action: October live cattle futures rose $1.85 to $219.675, nearer the session high, hit a three-week high and for the week up $6.725. November feeder cattle futures gained $5.40 to $328.175, near the daily high, hit a four-week high and for the week up $13.45.
5-day outlook: The cattle futures markets bulls had a very good holiday-shortened trading week, including technically bullish weekly high closes today that suggest follow-through, chart-based buying interest early next week.
USDA reported weekly U.S. beef export sales totaled 8,600 MT for 2026, down 34% from the previous week and 25% from the four-week average.
USDA at midday today reported still-very-light cattle trading today, with steers and heifers averaging $218.00. The agency Monday reported average cash cattle trading last week at $219.06. The noon report today showed mixed boxed beef prices, with Choice grade down $2.41 at $375.96 and Select grade up $1.61 at $353.67. Movement at midday was 69 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $22.29.
30-day outlook: Cash cattle prices appear to have stabilized from the recent declines. Tight supplies and lower slaughter levels are likely to underpin prices in the coming weeks, with 2026 beef output seen down about 4%. However, feedlot inventories are running above a year ago, carcasses are heavier and extra lean-beef import quotas plus Mexico cattle shipments could limit gains in cash and futures. Continued cash stabilization and mixed boxed beef must firm for the rebound to last.
90-day outlook: The stock and financial markets have turned a bit wobbly the past couple weeks. September and October are historically the two most turbulent months of the year for stock and financial markets. Any bigger wobbles in the stock, financial or currency markets could dent consumer confidence, which may produce less demand for beef at the meat counter. This week’s U.S. inflation readings that are still running warm suggest the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates by a quarter-point next week. That’s not a good development for better consumer confidence at the meat counter. Also, demand for beef could also be crimped with gasoline prices at or above, $4.00 a gallon at the pumps.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.