Hogs
Price action: December lean hog futures fell $0.50 to $68.925, nearer the daily high and hit a contract low today.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw more technical selling pressure today. The near-term technical posture in hog futures remains bearish amid a price downtrend firmly in place on the daily chart. The cash hog market prices continue to trend down. The latest CME lean hog index is down $0.27 at $80.94. Thursday’s projected CME index price is up a penny at $80.95. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $78.02. The USDA’s noon pork report today showed cutout value was up $0.10 at $85.05, led by gains in butts. Movement at midday was 146.04 loads.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. pork export sales totaled 35,300 MT for 2026 during the week ended Sept. 26. Net sales were unchained from the previous week but up 10% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: December lean hog futures still see the technical posture as bearish. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close December futures prices above solid chart resistance at $74.375, which is the top of a downside price gap on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $65.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $70.10 and then at last week’s high of $71.625. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $67.95 and then at $67.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You currently have all risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.
Cattle
Price action: December live cattle rose $0.475 to $223.175, near the daily high and closed at a two-week high close. November feeder cattle gained $2.05 to $336.35, near the session high and hit a nine-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets saw modest chart-based buying today as price uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts. Also, overall supply and demand fundamentals are bullish for cattle and beef markets, despite solid losses in the boxed beef market today. Weaker cash cattle trading late this week limited buying interest in futures.
USDA today reported more active cash cattle trading late this week, with steers averaging $218.65 and heifers $218.84. The agency Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $220.67. The noon report today showed solidly lower boxed beef prices, with Choice grade down $3.81 at $378.98 and Select grade down $5.44 at $355.14. Movement at midday was 67 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $23.84.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales totaled 14,500 MT for 2026, up 55% from the previous week and 29% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Bullish head-and-shoulders bottom reversal patterns have formed on the daily charts for December live cattle and November feeders. Both markets are also trending up on their daily charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close December futures above resistance at the August high of $229.425. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $214.625. First resistance is seen at the September high of $225.50 and then at $227.00. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $221.025 and then at last week’s low of $218.775.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close November futures prices above technical resistance at $345.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $316.175. First resistance is seen at $338.00 and then at $340.00. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $330.625 and then at this week’s low of $326.425.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.