Hogs
Price action: December lean hog futures fell $1.575 to $53.525, nearer the daily low, hit another contract low, and for the week down $5.35.
5-day outlook: December lean hog futures saw another technically bearish weekly low close today, which sets the market up for some follow-through, chart-based selling early next week. However, the market remains extremely oversold, technically. Futures prices remain trapped in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The CME cash hog index and cash hog prices continue to trend down. Big losses in the cattle futures markets the past two weeks have also spilled over into selling pressure in lean hog futures.
The latest CME lean hog index is down $1.07 to $62.86. Monday’s projected CME index price is down another $1.29 at $61.57. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $45.39. The USDA noon pork report today showed cutout value was up $2.91 at $71.90, led by gains in picnics. Movement at midday was 174.81 loads.
30-day outlook: Nearby lean hog futures this week plunged to a six-year low as bearish technicals and wholesale pork fundamentals continued to invite speculator sellers. Higher fuel prices have curbed road-trip activity that is historically linked to demand for bacon. The USDA says bacon demand often slows when inflation and gasoline prices rise. Adequate frozen U.S. pork stocks are also price-bearish.
90-day outlook: Lean hog futures have faced sustained price pressure since early October. A clear recovery signal or catalyst has yet to emerge, however, as the softness has extended beyond nearby contract months well into 2027 contracts. This reflects broader caution around longer-term producer profitability and demand rather than a purely near-term seasonal dip. Weak cash hog prices, soft wholesale values and ongoing export headwinds, particularly limited Chinese buying amid its own oversupply and reduced Mexican purchases, continue to block any meaningful price rebound.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You currently have all risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You are covered through the end of December for corn-for-feed and covered through November for soymeal for feed needs. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.
Cattle
Price action: December live cattle futures fell $0.35 to $214.05, nearer the daily high, hit an 11-month low early on and for the week down $6.90. January feeder cattle futures lost $1.95 to $318.375, nearer the daily high, hit a six-week low early on and for the week down $13.40.
5-day outlook: The cattle futures markets suffered through a second straight week of strong losses, prompted by a major sell off in the U.S. stock market and technical selling pressure. Solidly lower cash cattle trade this week also put downside price pressure on the cattle futures markets.
USDA at midday reported active cash cattle trading this week, with steers averaging $216.52 and heifers $216.77. The agency reported average cash cattle trading last week at $223.65. The noon report today showed mixed boxed beef prices, with Choice grade down $0.83 at $360.73 and Select grade up $1.07 at $353.39. Movement at midday was decent at 96 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $7.35.
30-day outlook: December live cattle futures are now trading at around a $3 discount to the cash market, suggesting futures traders expect still more cash cattle price weakness in the coming weeks. The recent sell off has been described as cash-cattle led, driven in part by heavier cattle that are difficult to manage in cold weather and were marketed in the north.
90-day outlook: The time for winter grazing has arrived and many pastures may remain empty as the shortage of cattle lingers. Tight feeder supplies and record-low placements continue to limit the number of animals available to stock pastures, reinforcing the structural inventory constraints even as near-term cash pressure persists. On the positive side, steady, solid demand for beef at the meat counter in recent months has kept cattle futures markets afloat. However, a sustained sell off in the stock market could significantly dent consumer demand for beef at the meat counter. But as was reinforced by today’s stronger U.S. jobs report, the U.S. economy has been showing enough strength to keep consumers mostly upbeat.
What to do: You are covered through the end of December for corn-for-feed, and are hand to mouth for soymeal for feed needs. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You are covered through the end of December for corn-for-feed and covered through November for soymeal for feed needs. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices arise from fall harvest pressure.