Hogs
Price action: June lean hogs closed 15 cents lower at $97.175, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Lean hog futures, particularly June lean hog, continue to trade in a tight range as the market tries to digest mixed signals from the cash market. The CME lean hog index has stalled the past couple of days, rising just 3 cents to $90.16 as of May 6. The preliminary calculation puts the index down 9 cents to $90.07 tomorrow, which would put an end to the strength that has persisted over the past three weeks in the index. Falling pork cutout has stirred pessimism in the marketplace as traders anticipate a downturn in export demand, which has been evident in the export sales reports the past several weeks. Export sales of pork today totaled 24,200 MT, which was down 30% from the previous week though was up 14% from the four-week average.
Pork cutout continues to flounder, falling another 82 cents to $94.72 at midsession today, led by losses in ribs and bellies. While cutout fell, movement remains impressive, totaling 181.54 loads.
Technical analysis: June lean hogs continue to trade in a tightening range on the daily bar chart. Bulls retain a slight technical advantage, though the uptrend from the April low has stalled out. A daily close above resistance at $97.50 would indicate a technical breakout, while a close below $96.50 would indicate a technical breakdown. Additional resistance stands at $98.20, the 10-day moving average, then the psychological $100.00 mark. Staunch selling would find support at $95.80.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered in the cash market through June.
Cattle
Price action: June live cattle rose $1.725 to $214.25, nearer the daily high and hit a contract high. August feeder cattle rose $2.65 to $301.25, nearer the session high and hit a contract high.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures bulls are keeping their foot on the gas amid strong cash market fundamentals. Today’s risk-on trader/investor mentality also invited speculators to the long sides of the cattle markets as the charts remain fully bullish.
Lighter cash cattle trading so far this week has taken place around $219.00, which compares to last week’s final average of $220.97. However, much of that trade so far has taken place with lower-quality animals and in areas where prices typically aren’t as high. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef values higher, with Choice up $1.65 to $347.80, while Select gained 58 cents to $334.58. Movement at midday was 74 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $13.22.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 7,600 MT for 2025, down 41% from the previous week and 42% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close June futures above resistance at $217.675, which is the record high, basis nearby futures. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $207.725. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $214.625 and then at $217.675. First support is seen at today’s low of $211.75 and then at $210.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at $310.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $287.50. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $301.575 and then at $303.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $298.025 and then at $296.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You should have all corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered in the cash market through June.