Hogs
Price action: July lean hogs expired at $106.85, up 15 cents, while August futures rose 70 cents to $103.925.
Fundamental analysis: July lean hogs, which expired at noon and will be settled against the cash index on July 17, rose modestly, as traders looked to limit the futures’ discount to cash into expiration. Meanwhile, corrective buying in deferred contracts as the session progressed, was spurred by modest gains in the cash index and cutout. In the noon report cutout rose 43 cents to $114.28, amid gains in all cuts aside from a drop in primal ribs. Movement totaled 156.8 loads at midday.
The cash index continues to bounce back and forth, with tomorrow’s preliminary quote down 6 cents to $107.19.
China’s pork production in the second quarter rose 1.4% from last year to 14.18 MMT, boosted by increased slaughter weights and efficiency. A total of 366.19 million bogs were slaughtered in the first half of 2025, up 0.6% from a year earlier, which resulted in a 1.3% increase in pork product to 30.2 MMT. China’s pig herd rose to 424.47 million head at the end of the second quarter, up from 17.31 million in the first quarter.
Technical analysis: August lean hogs held an inside range, supported by Monday’s low of $102.70, while initial resistance stood at $1.04.50. Bears are looking to breach the 100- and 100-day moving averages, trading around $101.16 and $99.98, with sights set on the April 9 low of 86.00 cents. On the other hand, bulls will face pressure from the 10-, 40- and 20-day moving averages, trading at $106.01, $107.21 and $108.61, as they look to take out the mid-June high of $113.375.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle rose $3.05 to $222.40, nearer the daily high. August feeder cattle rose $2.80 to $322.275, near the session high.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets bulls bounced right back today, after Monday’s profit-taking selling pressure. Bulls are still strong, both technically and fundamentally. Steep discounts live cattle futures hold to the cash cattle market will likely continue to limit seller interest.
Cash cattle prices averaged $237.21 last week, up $7.78 from the previous week and the second highest price on record. Historically tight feedlot supplies are likely to at least keep a floor under cattle market prices, despite the fact that peak grilling season is passing. Wholesale boxed beef values rose at noon today, with Choice-grade up $1.46 to $378.53, while Select rose $2.03 to $366.61. Movement at midday was good at 84 loads. Packer margins are in the red again after a brief period in the black last week. The Choice-Select spread is presently $11.92.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at $225.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $215.00. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $223.275 and then at $224.00. First support is seen at $220.00 and then at this week’s low of $219.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $326.875. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $310.00. First resistance is seen at $323.00 and then at $324.00. First support is seen at $320.00 and then at this week’s low of $318.70.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.