Hogs
Price action: August lean hog futures fell $0.525 to $96.70, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market today saw some modest technical selling and a corrective pullback from four sessions in a row of price gains in the August contract. More price gains late this week would negate the price downtrend to suggest a market bottom is in place.
Hog traders are awaiting Thursday afternoon’s quarterly USDA hogs and pigs report. The size of the U.S. hog herd was slightly larger on June 1 than a year earlier, according to a Reuters survey. All hogs inventory as of June 1 is expected to be 100.9% of the herd seen one year ago at the same time. Kept for breeding is seen at 99.3% from June 1, 2025. Kept for market numbers are seen at 101.1% from a year ago. The March-May pig crop is seen at 101.2% from June 1 of 2025.
The latest CME lean hog index is down 17 cents at $91.47. Thursday’s projected cash index price is up 38 cents $91.95. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $96.73. The noon report today showed pork cutout value down $0.41 at $94.84, led by losses in bellies. Movement at midday was 121.22 loads.
Technical analysis: August lean hog futures bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close June futures prices above solid chart resistance at $100.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of $93.675. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $98.35 and then at $100.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $96.10 and then at $95.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.
Cattle
Price action: August live cattle rose $0.525 to $246.525, near mid-range. August feeder cattle gained $4.775 to $372.925, nearer the session high and hit a six-week high.
Fundamental analysis: The cattle futures markets today saw technical buying and also support from ongoing concerns about reduced beef supplies coming out of Texas due to the NWS detections in the state. The USDA Animal and Plant Health and Inspection Service (APHIS) on its NWS website is now reporting 19 total New World screwworm detected cases, 16 of which are classified as active. All 16 active cases are in Texas. The cattle bulls were also somewhat assuaged by today’s rebound in the U.S. stock market, after solid losses Tuesday.
USDA at midday today reported light cash cattle trading so far this week, averaging $260.00. Last week’s cash cattle average trading price was $259.63, up $3.55 from the week prior. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values mixed, with Choice back above $400.00. Choice-grade was up $0.63 at $400.94, while Select-grade lost $1.20 to $379.86. Movement at midday was 48 loads. The Choice-Select spread at midday today was plus $21.08.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures see price uptrends in place on their daily bar charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close August futures above resistance at the contract high of $251.65. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of $233.975. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $250.00 and then at $251.65. First support is seen at this week’s low of $245.475 and then at $243.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close August futures prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $379.45. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $355.00. First resistance is seen at $375.00 and then at $377.50. First support is seen at $370.00 and then at this week’s low of $367.125.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through July in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.