Hogs
Price action: October lean hog futures fell $0.35 to $83.325, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw mild technical selling pressure as the October contract remains in a price downtrend on the daily bar chart. The cash hog market is still trending down, to keep the bears in control. The latest CME lean hog index down 21 cents to $96.09. Wednesday’s projected CME index price is down 15 cents at $95.94. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $97.80. The USDA’s noon pork report today showed cutout value was up $0.98 at $102.79, led by gains in loins, butts and hams. Movement at midday was 153.92 loads.
Technical analysis: October lean hog futures are still trapped in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close October futures prices above solid chart resistance at $87.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $81.325. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $84.40 and then at $85.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $82.275 and then at $81.325.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You currently have all risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market.Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.
Cattle
Price action: October live cattle fell $0.575 to $226.325, near the daily low. September feeder cattle rose $0.675 to $345.25, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: October live cattle and September feeder futures today saw more short covering and some perceived value-buying early in the session, but gains faded in feeders and were lost in live cattle by the close. Higher cash cattle trading that occurred last week did limit selling interest in futures prices today. USDA at midday today reported very light cash cattle taking place so far this week at $235.00. The agency on Monday reported cash trading last week took place at an average price of $235.21. The week prior’s average cash trading price was $233.06. The noon report today showed weaker boxed beef prices, with Choice grade down $1.04 at $370.38 and Select grade down $0.65 at $350.19. Movement at midday was decent at 86 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $20.19.
In the southern Plains states, livestock heat stress will prevail during much of the next two weeks, making weight gains a challenge.
Technical analysis: October live cattle and September feeder cattle futures still see price uptrends in place on the daily bar charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close October futures above resistance at $235.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $216.95. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $228.45 and then at last week’s high of $230.325. First support is seen at $225.00 and then at last week’s low of $222.75.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close September futures prices above technical resistance at $355.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the July low of $330.70. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $349.85 and then at $353.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $343.00 and then at last week’s low of $339.90.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market.Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.