Hogs
Price action: June lean hog futures fell 37 1/2 cents to $100.325 and nearer the daily low. For the week, June hogs rose $2.75.
5-day outlook: Despite today’s slightly weaker close, the lean hog futures bulls had a good week, suggesting today’s price action was just a pause after Thursday’s good gains. Cash hog and pork market fundamentals have improved recently, to suggest more price strength next week. The latest CME lean hog index is up 24 cents to $91.02 as of May 14, marking a for-the-move high. Today’s national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $93.73. The noon report today showed pork cutout dipped a dime to $99.62, led by drop in bellies. Movement at midday was decent at 172.11 loads, suggesting good consumer demand for pork at the meat counter.
30-day outlook: Peak grilling season gets under way with the Memorial Day weekend. Elevated beef prices at the meat counter will likely have many consumers more tempted to choose pork for the grilling features. Significant lean hog futures premiums to the the cash hog index suggest futures traders do expect the cash hog market to continue to rally in the coming weeks. The seasonal decline in hog slaughter should continue to underpin cash and futures in the near term.
90-day outlook: The weekly USDA export sales report Thursday showed U.S. pork sales of 24,600 MT for 2025 were up 2 percent from the previous week and up 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The report showed China was absent from a major purchaser of U.S. pork. China is a major pork importer. However, this week’s significant thawing in U.S.-China trade relations may open the door to better Chinese purchases of U.S. pork in the coming months. It’s very likely the U.S. hog and pork markets will need solid Chinese demand for U.S. pork to extend price upside potential.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered in the cash market through June.
Cattle
Price action: June live cattle rose $1.15 to $212.325 but marked a $2.275 weekly loss. August feeders rose $1.95 to $297.775, but gave up $2.475 on the week.
5-day outlook: Cattle futures faced moderate corrective strength to round the week out, as supply fundamentals still ring bullish, after a sharp two-day selloff in midweek trade. Today’s price action was key in determining the near-term direction of prices, with bulls ultimately prevailing as they defended key technical support areas. Moreover, a push into near-term oversold territory also bodes well for bulls and should limit a continued price-decline. However, this week’s cash trade will play a pivotal role in determining futures’ direction next week. Tight supplies coupled with elevated demand have given feedlots the upper hand in negotiations, pushing cash trade to records over the past several weeks.
30-day outlook: Choice boxed beef values breached $350.00 this week, for only the second time, though wholesale values still haven’t been able to keep up with surging cash prices, which have jumped $17.10 in the past four weeks. The combination has driven already negative packer margins deep into the red, forced to pull from the fed cattle population to meet weekly slaughter needs. Cow slaughter has waned as of late as robust prices have encouraged producers to hold back older cows for another calf, though higher steer weights have helped close the supply gap.
90-day outlook: USDA announced the suspension of live cattle imports from Mexico last weekend, due to recent detections of New World Screwworm (NWS) in southern Mexico. In its monthly Supply and Demand Report, USDA lowered its 2025 beef production forecast as higher dressed weights more than offset reduced steer and heifer slaughter due to the suspension of cattle imports from Mexico. However, the government cut beef exports for 2025 amid higher-than-expected official reported trade data for the first quarter is more than offset by tighter available supplies for the second half of the year. Those changes led USDA to increase the projected average cash price this year by $9.00 to a record $214.51—up $27.39 from 2024. Moreover, for 2026, USDA projects another 4.8% decline in beef production and another 6.3% decline in exports.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You should have all corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered in the cash market through June.