Hogs
Price action: October lean hog futures fell $0.275 to $80.625, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market paused again today as bulls are working to stop the bleeding. Technical charts are still overall bearish. However, this week’s price action has at least seen the price downtrend on the daily bar chart stall out.
USDA reported weekly pork sales of 38,700 MT for 2026, up 42% from the previous week and 23% from the four-week average.
The cash hog market continues to trend down. The latest CME lean hog index down 23 cents to $92.42. Friday’s projected CME index price is down another 28 cents at $92.14. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $91.57. The USDA’s noon pork report today showed cutout value was down $1.46 at $94.09, led by losses in loins, butts and bellies. Movement at midday was 170.36 loads.
Technical analysis: October lean hog futures are still in a price downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close October futures prices above solid chart resistance at $84.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $77.95. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $81.575 and then at $82.50. First support is seen at the August low of $79.675 and then at $77.95.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You currently have all risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market.Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.
Cattle
Price action: October live cattle rose $2.15 to $212.925, near mid-range. November feeder cattle rose $3.975 to $311.475, also near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: October live cattle and November feeder futures today saw decent short-covering buying and corrective rebounds after both markets hit eight-month lows on Wednesday. Key for the bulls will be to show better follow-through buying on Friday that would begin to suggest market bottoms are finally in place. Cash cattle trading taking place this week at significantly lower money than last week will make that task on Friday more difficult.
President Trump on Wednesday indicated he was open to changing federal beef-processing regulations, saying a loosening “could be a very good call for ranchers or farmers – no, for the country,” Bloomberg reported. Trump, in an interview with conservative radio host Glenn Beck, didn’t provide details on what regulatory changes he might consider.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. beef export sales of 9,200 MT for 2026, down 1% from the previous week and down 38% from the four-week average.
USDA at midday today reported more active cash cattle trading so far this week, with steers averaging $218.60 and heifers $218.39. The agency Monday said last week’s cash cattle trading activity averaged $225.01. The noon report today showed weaker boxed beef prices, with Choice grade down $1.66 at $383.47 and Select grade down $2.55 at $360.13. Movement at midday was 58 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $23.34. World weather today said “livestock stress has been horrific in the southern Plains recently with persistent excessive heat and no rain.”
Technical analysis: The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close October futures above resistance at $220.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $200.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $214.225 and then at $217.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $211.275 and then at this week’s low of $209.525.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close November futures prices above technical resistance at $325.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $314.45 and then at this week’s high of $318.175. First support is seen at today’s low of $307.95 and then at this week’s low of $304.15.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market.Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.