Hogs
Price action: October lean hog futures fell $1.05 to $97.125, nearer the daily low. For the week, October hogs gained $1.10.
5-day outlook: The lean hog futures market today saw routine profit-taking pressure from recent gains that on Thursday pushed prices to a contract high. The near-term technical posture for lean hog futures is still firmly bullish, which will at least keep the speculative bears at bay early next week.
The latest CME lean hog index rose 11 cents to $106.04 as of Sept 10. Monday’s projected cash index price is up 10 cents at $106.14. The national direct five-day rolling average cash price today is $106.85. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up $1.68 to $114.85, led by gains in bellies and loins. Movement at midday was solid at 255.82 loads.
30-day outlook: Hog slaughter levels have risen seasonally, while cash fundamentals stabilized recently. This week’s downbeat U.S. economic data, in the form of downwardly revised U.S. jobs-growth numbers for the year ending in March and a surprising rise in weekly jobless claims, may prompt more substitution demand for pork at the meat counter in the coming weeks, due to declining consumer confidence. Remember that history shows the months of September and October can be unkind to the stock and financial markets.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported weekly U.S. pork export sales of 17,300 MT for 2025, down 27% from the previous week and down 35% from the four-week average. China and the U.S. are still working to secure a trade deal. With China being a major pork importer, progress on a trade deal will remain a major focus for the hog market. However, it was reported this week that China has summoned its major hog producers for a meeting on how to reduce the oversupply of hogs and pork in China that have deflated domestic hog and pork prices significantly in recent months.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market, with half coverage for October, November and December. For corn, you now have all needs through October covered in the cash market.
Cattle
Price action: October live cattle futures fell $2.30 to $229.975, near the daily low, hit a four-week low and for the week were down $6.00. September feeder cattle futures lost $4.825 to $350.40, near the daily low, hit a four-week low and for the week were down $9.425. Both markets closed at technically bearish weekly low closes today.
5-day outlook: The cattle futures bulls fizzled to end the trading week, which gives the speculative bears some momentum heading into trading early next week. Weaker cash cattle prices the past couple weeks are also negative. Cash cattle trading turned active today. USDA today reported steers fetched an average price of $239.26 and heifers an average of $239.30. That compares to last week’s average cash cattle trade at $242.55. The noon report today showed Choice-grade boxed beef values fell 30 cents to $400.49, while Select-grade lost $1.68 to $378.27. Movement at midday was solid at 92 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $22.22. Cattle traders will get updates on the nation’s cattle supplies and marketings with next Friday afternoon’s monthly USDA cattle-on-feed report.
30-day outlook: The marketplace got some downbeat U.S. economic news this week that could work to undermine consumer confidence in the coming months, and cattle market traders have taken notice. The government downwardly revised U.S. jobs-growth numbers for the year ended in March, to about half of the originally reported figures. Also, weekly jobless claims Thursday showed a surprising rise in claims. While the expected quarter-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week may bolster consumer attitudes due to lower borrowing costs, a trend of weakening U.S. economic data in the coming weeks could spook consumers, who are already paying historically high prices for beef at the meat counter.
90-day outlook: Next Friday’s USDA cattle-on-feed report will likely continue a string of reports that show historically low numbers of cattle on feed in U.S. feedlots. And despite the prospect of weaker U.S. economic data denting consumer confidence in the coming months and in turn potentially crimping consumer demand for beef, Pro Farmer veteran livestock analyst Dan Vaught (now retired) always argued that when consumers tighten their spending belts, such reduces demand for dining and beef at restaurants but actually increases consumer demand for beef due to more home dining that occurs during less-robust economic times, but still sees beef as a favorite at the table.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.