Hogs
Price action: October lean hog futures rose $0.25 to $81.125, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The lean hog futures market saw modest short covering today.
Sharply lower cattle futures prices today limited buying interest in hog futures. Also, the cash hog market is still trending down, which also favors the bearish camp of futures traders. The latest CME lean hog index IS down 46 cents to $93.26. Tuesday’s projected CME index price is down another 40 cents at $92.86. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $93.58. The USDA’s noon pork report today showed cutout value was up $1.93 at $99.89, led by gains in picnics and bellies. Movement at midday was 156.61 loads.
Technical analysis: October lean hog futures are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close October futures prices above solid chart resistance at $84.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $77.95. First resistance is seen at $82.00 and then at $83.00. First support is seen at the August low of $79.675 and then at $77.95.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You currently have all risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.
Cattle
Price action: October live cattle fell $4.325 to $213.60, nearer the daily low and closed at an eight-month low close. November feeder cattle lost $5.275 to $310.975, near the daily low and closed at an eight-month low close.
Fundamental analysis: October live cattle and November feeder futures today saw more technical selling pressure as the charts remain significantly bearish. The Trump administration’s latest push to lower beef prices via cheaper imports still has the cattle market bulls spooked early this week, keeping them mostly on the sidelines. Lower cash cattle trading last week is also bearish for futures. Cattle futures are also under pressure as today marked the first day of the reopening of the southern border to feeder imports at the Douglas, Arizona port.
USDA Friday afternoon reported cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on August 1. The inventory was 2 percent above August 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.42 million head, 11 percent below 2025. Net placements were 1.37 million head. Placements were the lowest for July since the series began in 1996.
USDA at midday today reported last week’s cash cattle trading activity averaged $225.01. That’s down $3.51 from the week prior averaging $228.52. The noon report today showed mixed boxed beef prices, with Choice grade down $0.84 at $384.85 and Select grade up $3.34 at $364.66. Movement at midday was light at 41 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $20.19.
In the southern Plains states, livestock heat stress will continue this week, making weight gains continuE to be a challenge.
Technical analysis: The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close October futures above resistance at $225.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $210.00. First resistance is seen at $217.00 and then at today’s high of $219.50. First support is seen at last week’s low of $212.675 and then at $210.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close November futures prices above technical resistance at the August high of $333.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $318.175 and then at $321.55. First support is seen at last week’s low of $307.95 and then at $305.00.
What to do: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have corn-for-feed and soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market. Be prepared to make purchases if value prices continue.