Hogs
Price action: June lean hog futures closed 7.5 cents higher to $98.025 and closed near mid-range. That marked a weekly gain of $4.70. Nearby May futures climbed a quarter to $90.40.
5-day outlook: June lean hogs traded on either side of unchanged before closing slightly firmer. Recent weakness plaguing the cash hog market has waned. Traders seemed to anticipate this, building premiums in May and June futures over the course of the last week. Key will be how slaughter is over the course of the next week. Slaughter is likely to drop given tomorrow’s holiday closing some plants, but over the past several weeks, slaughter has been running well above year ago, which has been weighing on cash hogs. The CME lean hog index is down another 28 cents to $85.09 as of April 15. Meanwhile, the index inched 12 cents higher to $85.21 in the preliminary calculation.
30-day outlook: Grocers picked up purchases of pork in the last couple of weeks in anticipation of the upcoming unofficial start of the grilling season after Easter. That continued at midsession today as pork cutout climbed another $2.15 to $94.19 as all cuts posted gains this morning. Movement climbed to 175.11 loads. Given the strong rally in hog futures this week, consumer demand for pork will need to prove to be strong given the premiums built into futures. We feel this is warranted given the uncertain economic outlook and pork’s relative cheapness to meat, likely to draw price conscious spenders.
90-day outlook: Barriers to trade are likely to weigh on the hog and pork market as the summer months drag on. While slaughter will be hitting annual lows, the extra supply in the marketplace is likely to weigh on both cutout and eventually hog prices. Unless trade deals are in place or the U.S. is able to ship additional pork to countries holding trade agreements, the seasonal rally into the summer could be subdued compared to what is historically normal.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through April. You have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through May.
Cattle
Price action: June live cattle futures rose $2.00 to $204.075, near the daily high and hit a three-week high. For the week, June cattle gained $7.275. May feeder cattle futures closed up $2.45 at $286.85, near the session high, hit a three-week high and for the week gained $8.15.
5-day outlook: Today’s technically bullish weekly high closes in June live cattle and May feeders sets the stage for follow-through technical buying by the speculators early next week. Cash cattle trade so far this week has been light, with the average transaction price fetching $208.00. More active trade is likely to develop later today, as is the norm on days of USDA Cattle on Feed Report releases. Traders on Monday will closely scrutinize this afternoon’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. Markets are closed Friday for the Easter holiday. An Urner Barry survey expects the agency to report the April 1 U.S. feedlot inventory declined 1.7% from year-ago. The focus will be on cattle placements, which are expected to have risen 3.7% from year-ago levels, due to the small number of cattle moved into feedlots in March of 2024. Marketings are anticipated to have increased 0.7% from the year prior. The noon beef report today showed Choice-grade boxed beef values up $1.34 at $334.87, with Select gaining $2.82 to $317.21. The Choice-Select spread narrowed to $17.66. Movement at midday was 49 loads. USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 17,500 MT for 2025, up 47% from the previous week and up 78% from the four-week average.
30-day outlook: The grilling season gets underway in earnest in the coming few weeks. That should keep consumer demand for beef solid. However, consumer confidence readings of late have shown declines in confidence, which could begin to crimp demand for beef at the meat counter. Despite recent price setbacks in cash cattle, fresh beef and futures markets, all three have shown keen resilience as seen this week. We look for consumers to continue look to beef for their number-one choice.
90-day outlook: A main reason for downbeat consumer confidence readings lately is the wobbly stock and financial markets amid highly elevated worldwide trade tensions. Fed Chairman Powell on Wednesday warned of the potential for slowing U.S. economic growth and rising inflation due to the aggressive U.S. tariff policies put in place the past few weeks. If the stock indexes melt down further in the coming weeks/months and set new for-the-move lows, investors and consumers would likely become more seriously rattled, which in turn would likely reduce consumer demand for beef, on worries about a U.S. economic recession.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: You have all corn-for-feed needs covered in the cash market through April. You have all soymeal needs covered in the cash market through May.