Hogs
Price action: April lean hog futures rose 2 1/2 cents to $93.70, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Lean hog futures today saw some more short covering and perceived bargain buying following recent losses. However, most of the gains faded by the close. Still, bulls are showing resilience and clawing back. Gains in hog futures were limited by the sell offs in the cattle futures markets today.
The latest CME lean hog index is up 36 cents at $87.95. Tuesday’s projected cash index price is up 22 cents at $88.17. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote today is $65.24. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up $2.26 at $97.87, led by gains in, picnics, ribs and bellies. Movement at midday was 165.65 loads.
Technical analysis: April lean hog futures bulls have begun to repair recent chart damage and more gains this week would likely start a fledgling price uptrend on the daily chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close April futures prices above solid chart resistance at $97.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $91.125. First resistance is seen at $95.00 and then at $96.00. First support is seen at $93.00 and then at $92.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through March in the cash market. You should also have corn-for-feed needs purchased through March. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Cattle
Price action: April live cattle fell $2.75 to $239.25, nearer the daily low. March feeder cattle fell $3.725 to $364.30, nearer the session low and hit a more-than-two-week low.
Fundamental analysis: The live cattle futures market today saw heavy profit-taking pressure from recent gains.
USDA today reported the average cash cattle trading price last week was $246.91, which is up $1.29 from last week’s average. The noon report today showed wholesale boxed beef cutout values firmer. Choice-grade was up $1.28 at $367.98, while Select-grade rose $3.09 to $363.83. Movement at midday was 51 loads. The Choice-Select spread at midday today was plus $4.15.
USDA Friday afternoon reported cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the U.S. for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.5 million head on February 1, which is 2 percent below February 1, 2025. Placements in feedlots during January totaled 1.74 million head, 5 percent below 2025. Those numbers were close to market expectations but still lean price-friendly. Net placements were 1.68 million head.
Technical analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends still in place on the daily bar charts. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close April futures above resistance at the contract high of $250.925. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the February low of $234.55. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $242.625 and then at the February high of $244.575. First support is seen at today’s low of $238.275 and then at $236.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close March futures prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $378.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at $360.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $368.35 and then at last week’s high of $372.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $361.725 and then at $360.00.
What to do: Cover corn-for-feed needs through March in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through March. You have corn-for-feed needs covered through March as well. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.